Change in consumer spending on media worldwide 2018-2027, by scenario

Global consumer spending on media increased by 11 percent in 2021. According to the forecast scenarios, the expenditure would decline by eight or 19 percent in 2023.

Scenario A: According to this first scenario, the recession would only have a short-term impact on consumers' media spending. At the height of the recession in 2023, consumers are expected to spend less on entertainment to offset rising energy and consumer product prices. The economy should begin to recover from the recession by 2024 and should be fully mended by 2027, while spending on media will be back to pre-pandemic levels.

Scenario B: The second scenario predicts a long-term impact of the recession on media consumption behavior. Ad-supported options will replace subscription-based offers, whereas on-and-off subscribing will increase, driven by special offers and consumers unsubscribing after those offers expire. The inflation will hit harder in 2023 than according to the first scenario and behavior changes will stick even after 2027 when the economy has fully recovered.