In October 2024, the Sahm recession indicator was 0.43, a slight decrease from the previous month. The Sahm Rule was developed to flag the onset of an economic recession more quickly than other indicators. The Sahm Rule signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to its low during the previous 12 months.
Sahm rule recession indicator in the United States from October 2022 to October 2024
The source adds: The indicator is based on "real-time" unemployment data that were available in a given month. The Bureau of Labor Statistics revises the unemployment rate each year at the beginning of January, when the December unemployment rate for the prior year is published. Revisions to the seasonal factors can affect estimates in recent years.
Profit from the additional features of your individual account
Currently, you are using a shared account. To use individual functions (e.g., mark statistics as favourites, set
statistic alerts) please log in with your personal account.
If you are an admin, please authenticate by logging in again.
Learn more about how Statista can support your business.
St. Louis Fed. (November 1, 2024). Sahm rule recession indicator in the United States from October 2022 to October 2024 [Graph]. In Statista. Retrieved November 21, 2024, from https://www.statista.com/statistics/1329904/sahm-recession-indicator-us/
St. Louis Fed. "Sahm rule recession indicator in the United States from October 2022 to October 2024." Chart. November 1, 2024. Statista. Accessed November 21, 2024. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1329904/sahm-recession-indicator-us/
St. Louis Fed. (2024). Sahm rule recession indicator in the United States from October 2022 to October 2024. Statista. Statista Inc.. Accessed: November 21, 2024. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1329904/sahm-recession-indicator-us/
St. Louis Fed. "Sahm Rule Recession Indicator in The United States from October 2022 to October 2024." Statista, Statista Inc., 1 Nov 2024, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1329904/sahm-recession-indicator-us/
St. Louis Fed, Sahm rule recession indicator in the United States from October 2022 to October 2024 Statista, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1329904/sahm-recession-indicator-us/ (last visited November 21, 2024)
Sahm rule recession indicator in the United States from October 2022 to October 2024 [Graph], St. Louis Fed, November 1, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1329904/sahm-recession-indicator-us/
