U.S. Sahm rule recession indicator 2022-2024

Published by Statista Research Department, Jun 20, 2024

In May 2024, the Sahm recession indicator was 0.37, the same as the previous month. The Sahm Rule was developed to flag the onset of an economic recession more quickly than other indicators. The Sahm Rule signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to its low during the previous 12 months.

Sahm rule recession indicator in the United States from May 2022 to May 2024

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Sources

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Release date

June 2024

Region

United States

Survey time period

May 2022 to May 2024

Supplementary notes

The source adds: The indicator is based on "real-time" unemployment data that were available in a given month. The Bureau of Labor Statistics revises the unemployment rate each year at the beginning of January, when the December unemployment rate for the prior year is published. Revisions to the seasonal factors can affect estimates in recent years.

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