In October 2024, the Sahm recession indicator was 0.43, a slight decrease from the previous month. The Sahm Rule was developed to flag the onset of an economic recession more quickly than other indicators. The Sahm Rule signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to its low during the previous 12 months.
Sahm rule recession indicator in the United States from October 2022 to October 2024
The source adds: The indicator is based on "real-time" unemployment data that were available in a given month. The Bureau of Labor Statistics revises the unemployment rate each year at the beginning of January, when the December unemployment rate for the prior year is published. Revisions to the seasonal factors can affect estimates in recent years.
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St. Louis Fed. (November 1, 2024). Sahm rule recession indicator in the United States from October 2022 to October 2024 [Graph]. In Statista. Retrieved December 22, 2024, from https://www.statista.com/statistics/1329904/sahm-recession-indicator-us/
St. Louis Fed. "Sahm rule recession indicator in the United States from October 2022 to October 2024." Chart. November 1, 2024. Statista. Accessed December 22, 2024. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1329904/sahm-recession-indicator-us/
St. Louis Fed. (2024). Sahm rule recession indicator in the United States from October 2022 to October 2024. Statista. Statista Inc.. Accessed: December 22, 2024. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1329904/sahm-recession-indicator-us/
St. Louis Fed. "Sahm Rule Recession Indicator in The United States from October 2022 to October 2024." Statista, Statista Inc., 1 Nov 2024, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1329904/sahm-recession-indicator-us/
St. Louis Fed, Sahm rule recession indicator in the United States from October 2022 to October 2024 Statista, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1329904/sahm-recession-indicator-us/ (last visited December 22, 2024)
Sahm rule recession indicator in the United States from October 2022 to October 2024 [Graph], St. Louis Fed, November 1, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1329904/sahm-recession-indicator-us/
