Russian gas supply cut impact on GDP in Europe

Hungary is expected to see the greatest GDP output losses in a theoretical scenario whereby Russia would stop natural gas supplies to Europe. The 2022 projection assumes that in a best-case scenario Hungary would see a 1.1 percent loss to its GDP after a 12 month period following the shut-off, whereas a worst-case scenario would be a 6.5 percent loss. The European Union average is estimated to range between -0.4 and -2.7 percent impact on GDP.

Projected GDP output losses twelve months after a theoretical Russian gas supply shut-off in select European countries in 2022, by scenario

Characteristic	Best-case scenario*	Worst-case scenario**
Hungary	-1.1%	-6.5%
Slovakia	-0.8%	-5.7%
Netherlands	-0.8%	-2%
Croatia	-0.7%	-
Italy	-0.6%	-5.7%
Poland	-0.6%	-2%
Lithuania	-0.6%	-1.4%
Bulgaria	-0.5%	-0.9%
Czechia	-0.5%	-5.4%
Belgium	-0.5%	-
Romania	-0.5%	-1.7%
Germany	-0.4%	-2.8%
Latvia	-0.4%	-1.2%
Greece	-0.4%	-0.8%
EU average	-0.4%	-2.7%
Ireland	-0.3%	-
Portugal	-0.3%	-
United Kingdom	-0.3%	-
Austria	-0.3%	-2.6%
Spain	-0.3%	-1.2%
Slovenia	-0.2%	-2.4%
Estonia	-0.2%	-0.6%
Luxembourg	-0.2%	-0.4%
Denmark	-0.1%	-
Finland	-0.1%	-1.4%
France	-0.2%	-1.1%

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Release date

July 2022

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Region

Europe

Survey time period

2022

Supplementary notes

* Best-case scenario assumes low adjustment conflict and an integration into the existing LNG market worldwide.
** Worst-case scenario assumes high adjustment conflict and a scenario whereby households would be protected from repercussions.

Worst-case scenario projections were not provided for all countries.

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