By 2050, Cape Verde and Burkina Faso are likely to have their entire GDPs exposed to losses due to physical climate risks such as wildfire, floods, sea level rise, or storms. Considering a moderate emissions scenario, Ethiopia's economy would also be at high risk, with 93 percent of the country's GDP exposed to losses. In general, the most affected African countries are located around the equator. Nations in the continent's south are less affected, especially those with a current stronger economy, like South Africa.
Estimated percentage of GDP exposed to losses due to wildfire, flood, sea level rise, or storms in Africa in 2050, by country
According to the source, estimates considering a moderate emissions scenario (RCP4.5) "consistent with a future of relatively ambitious emissions reductions with a slight rise to 2040 and then a decline. This scenario falls short of the Paris Agreement aim of limiting global temperature rise to “well below” 2°C, with a projected average temperature increase of 1.8°C (likely range 1.1°C to 2.6°C)".
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S&P Global Ratings. (April 27, 2022). Estimated percentage of GDP exposed to losses due to wildfire, flood, sea level rise, or storms in Africa in 2050, by country [Graph]. In Statista. Retrieved December 19, 2024, from https://www.statista.com/statistics/1310840/gdp-exposure-to-wildfire-flood-sea-level-rise-or-storms-in-africa/
S&P Global Ratings. "Estimated percentage of GDP exposed to losses due to wildfire, flood, sea level rise, or storms in Africa in 2050, by country." Chart. April 27, 2022. Statista. Accessed December 19, 2024. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1310840/gdp-exposure-to-wildfire-flood-sea-level-rise-or-storms-in-africa/
S&P Global Ratings. (2022). Estimated percentage of GDP exposed to losses due to wildfire, flood, sea level rise, or storms in Africa in 2050, by country. Statista. Statista Inc.. Accessed: December 19, 2024. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1310840/gdp-exposure-to-wildfire-flood-sea-level-rise-or-storms-in-africa/
S&P Global Ratings. "Estimated Percentage of Gdp Exposed to Losses Due to Wildfire, Flood, Sea Level Rise, or Storms in Africa in 2050, by Country." Statista, Statista Inc., 27 Apr 2022, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1310840/gdp-exposure-to-wildfire-flood-sea-level-rise-or-storms-in-africa/
S&P Global Ratings, Estimated percentage of GDP exposed to losses due to wildfire, flood, sea level rise, or storms in Africa in 2050, by country Statista, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1310840/gdp-exposure-to-wildfire-flood-sea-level-rise-or-storms-in-africa/ (last visited December 19, 2024)
Estimated percentage of GDP exposed to losses due to wildfire, flood, sea level rise, or storms in Africa in 2050, by country [Graph], S&P Global Ratings, April 27, 2022. [Online]. Available: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1310840/gdp-exposure-to-wildfire-flood-sea-level-rise-or-storms-in-africa/
