Impact of the war in Ukraine on GDP in CEE 2022-2023, by country

CEE economies were expected to have the most significant impact from the Russia-Ukraine war that started in February 2022. That was due to their geographical proximity to both countries, energy dependence from Russia, a refugee influx from Ukraine, and logistics issues that emerged from the war. According to a forecast from March 2022, Poland's gross domestic product (GDP) growth was forecast at approximately 4.2 percent in 2022, down from 4.8 percent forecast prior to the conflict. Under the adverse scenario, which considers that the war would continue into 2023, the West would impose more sanctions on Russia, and the latter would respond by limiting energy supplies, Czechia's GDP growth would reach nearly 1.3 percent in 2023, compared to almost 4 percent projected before the invasion.