In France, the first round of the presidential elections took place in April 2022, and a week before voting day, the incumbent president was predicted to win with 26.5 percent of the vote, and the Rassemblement National candidate in second place with 21.5 percent of votes. These estimates made by the Ipsos polling institute were underestimated, as Emmanuel Macron came first in the first round with 27.85 percent of the vote, against 23.15 percent for his opponent.
Evolution of voting intentions in the first round of presidential elections in France from April 2021 to March 2022
Characteristic
April 2021
October 2021
December 2021
January 2022
February 3-7, 2022
February 24-27, 2022
March 2-3, 2022
March 10-14, 2022
March 21-24, 2022
April 2-4, 2022
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registered voters who are sure to vote (i.e. 69% of the sample)
Method of interview
Online Access Panel
Supplementary notes
Data from April 2021 to March 21-24, 2022 come from studies previously published by the source:
- April 2021: sample of 10,000 people, interviewed from April 9 to 15, 2021. (Hypothesis: Valérie Pécresse)
- October 2021: sample of 16,228 people, interviewed from October 7 to 13, 2021. (Valérie Pécresse hypothesis + Eric Zemmour's candidacy)
- December 2021: sample of 10,928 people, interviewed from December 7 to 13, 2021.
- January 2022: sample of 12,542 people, interviewed from January 14 to 17, 2022.
-February 2022: sample of 12,499 people, interviewed from February 3 to 7, 2022.
- February 24-27, 2022 and March 2-3, 2022: sample of 13,651 people interviewed from February 24-27, 2022 and sample of 3,599 people, interviewed from March 2 to 3, 2022.
Ipsos conducted a survey on a sample of 3,599 people from March 2 to 3 to add a more recent perspective on the impact of the war in Ukraine. The interviews began after the President of the Republic's televised speech on March 2 at 8pm. They were conducted before the publication of the "Letter to the French" of the Head of State.
- March 10-14, 2022: sample of 13,749 people, interviewed from March 10 to 14, 2022.
- March 21-24, 2022: sample of 13,269 people, interviewed from March 10 to 14, 2022.
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Sciences Po (CEVIPOF). (April 5, 2022). Evolution of voting intentions in the first round of presidential elections in France from April 2021 to March 2022 [Graph]. In Statista. Retrieved July 22, 2024, from https://www.statista.com/statistics/1291705/voting-intentions-first-round-presidential-election-france/
Sciences Po (CEVIPOF). "Evolution of voting intentions in the first round of presidential elections in France from April 2021 to March 2022." Chart. April 5, 2022. Statista. Accessed July 22, 2024. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1291705/voting-intentions-first-round-presidential-election-france/
Sciences Po (CEVIPOF). (2022). Evolution of voting intentions in the first round of presidential elections in France from April 2021 to March 2022. Statista. Statista Inc.. Accessed: July 22, 2024. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1291705/voting-intentions-first-round-presidential-election-france/
Sciences Po (CEVIPOF). "Evolution of Voting Intentions in The First Round of Presidential Elections in France from April 2021 to March 2022." Statista, Statista Inc., 5 Apr 2022, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1291705/voting-intentions-first-round-presidential-election-france/
Sciences Po (CEVIPOF), Evolution of voting intentions in the first round of presidential elections in France from April 2021 to March 2022 Statista, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1291705/voting-intentions-first-round-presidential-election-france/ (last visited July 22, 2024)
Evolution of voting intentions in the first round of presidential elections in France from April 2021 to March 2022 [Graph], Sciences Po (CEVIPOF), April 5, 2022. [Online]. Available: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1291705/voting-intentions-first-round-presidential-election-france/
