Global temperature increase by scenario 2100

Based on policies and actions in place as of December 2023, the global temperature increase is estimated to reach a median of 2.7 degrees Celsius in 2100. In the best-case scenario, where all announced net-zero targets, long-term targets, and Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are fully implemented, the global temperature is still expected to rise by 1.8 degrees Celsius, when compared to the pre-industrial average.

In 2015, Paris Agreement parties pledged to limit global warming to well below two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, with the aim of reaching a maximum of 1.5 degrees. As of 2023, a warming of 1.3 degrees above the pre-industrial average was recorded.

Global warming projections by 2100, by scenario (in degrees Celsius)

Characteristic	Warming in degrees Celsius
Policies & action	2.7
2030 targets only	2.5
Pledges & targets	2.1
Optimistic scenario	1.8
Current status	1.3

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Release date

December 2023

More information

Region

Worldwide

Survey time period

as of December 2023

Supplementary notes

According to the source, figures are ‘median’ warming estimates, meaning there is a 50 percent chance that the calculated temperature would be exceeded if the given emissions pathway is followed.
The optimistic scenario refers to the best case, assuming full implementation of all announced targets (but not necessarily submitted and binding).

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