Based on policies and actions in place as of November 2024, the global temperature increase is estimated to reach a median of 2.9 degrees Celsius in 2100. In the best-case scenario, where all announced net-zero targets, long-term targets, and Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are fully implemented, the global temperature is still expected to rise by 1.9 degrees Celsius, when compared to the pre-industrial average.
In 2015, Paris Agreement parties pledged to limit global warming to well below two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, with the aim of reaching a maximum of 1.5 degrees. As of 2024, a warming of 1.2 degrees above the pre-industrial average was recorded.
Global warming projections by 2100, by scenario
(in degrees Celsius)
According to the source, figures are ‘median’ warming estimates, meaning there is a 50 percent chance that the calculated temperature would be exceeded if the given emissions pathway is followed. The optimistic scenario refers to the best case, assuming full implementation of all announced targets (but not necessarily submitted and binding).
*Data used from these scenarios are higher bound projections.
Profit from the additional features of your individual account
Currently, you are using a shared account. To use individual functions (e.g., mark statistics as favourites, set
statistic alerts) please log in with your personal account.
If you are an admin, please authenticate by logging in again.
Learn more about how Statista can support your business.
Climate Action Tracker. (November 13, 2024). Global warming projections by 2100, by scenario (in degrees Celsius) [Graph]. In Statista. Retrieved December 30, 2024, from https://www.statista.com/statistics/1278800/global-temperature-increase-by-scenario/
Climate Action Tracker. "Global warming projections by 2100, by scenario (in degrees Celsius)." Chart. November 13, 2024. Statista. Accessed December 30, 2024. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1278800/global-temperature-increase-by-scenario/
Climate Action Tracker. (2024). Global warming projections by 2100, by scenario (in degrees Celsius). Statista. Statista Inc.. Accessed: December 30, 2024. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1278800/global-temperature-increase-by-scenario/
Climate Action Tracker. "Global Warming Projections by 2100, by Scenario (in Degrees Celsius)." Statista, Statista Inc., 13 Nov 2024, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1278800/global-temperature-increase-by-scenario/
Climate Action Tracker, Global warming projections by 2100, by scenario (in degrees Celsius) Statista, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1278800/global-temperature-increase-by-scenario/ (last visited December 30, 2024)
Global warming projections by 2100, by scenario (in degrees Celsius) [Graph], Climate Action Tracker, November 13, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1278800/global-temperature-increase-by-scenario/
