Based on policies and actions in place as of November 2024, the global temperature increase is estimated to reach a median of 2.9 degrees Celsius in 2100. In the best-case scenario, where all announced net-zero targets, long-term targets, and Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are fully implemented, the global temperature is still expected to rise by 1.9 degrees Celsius, when compared to the pre-industrial average.
In 2015, Paris Agreement parties pledged to limit global warming to well below two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, with the aim of reaching a maximum of 1.5 degrees. As of 2024, a warming of 1.2 degrees above the pre-industrial average was recorded.
Global warming projections by 2100, by scenario
(in degrees Celsius)
Characteristic
Warming in degrees Celsius
Policies & action*
2.9
2030 targets only
2.6
Pledges & targets*
2.1
Optimistic scenario
1.9
Current status
1.2
00.511.522.533.5
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According to the source, figures are ‘median’ warming estimates, meaning there is a 50 percent chance that the calculated temperature would be exceeded if the given emissions pathway is followed. The optimistic scenario refers to the best case, assuming full implementation of all announced targets (but not necessarily submitted and binding).
*Data used from these scenarios are higher bound projections.
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Climate Action Tracker. (November 13, 2024). Global warming projections by 2100, by scenario (in degrees Celsius) [Graph]. In Statista. Retrieved March 10, 2025, from https://www.statista.com/statistics/1278800/global-temperature-increase-by-scenario/
Climate Action Tracker. "Global warming projections by 2100, by scenario (in degrees Celsius)." Chart. November 13, 2024. Statista. Accessed March 10, 2025. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1278800/global-temperature-increase-by-scenario/
Climate Action Tracker. (2024). Global warming projections by 2100, by scenario (in degrees Celsius). Statista. Statista Inc.. Accessed: March 10, 2025. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1278800/global-temperature-increase-by-scenario/
Climate Action Tracker. "Global Warming Projections by 2100, by Scenario (in Degrees Celsius)." Statista, Statista Inc., 13 Nov 2024, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1278800/global-temperature-increase-by-scenario/
Climate Action Tracker, Global warming projections by 2100, by scenario (in degrees Celsius) Statista, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1278800/global-temperature-increase-by-scenario/ (last visited March 10, 2025)
Global warming projections by 2100, by scenario (in degrees Celsius) [Graph], Climate Action Tracker, November 13, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1278800/global-temperature-increase-by-scenario/
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