Electoral movements supporting Eric Zemmour for presidential elections in France 2021
The trial of far-right polemicist Eric Zemmour began on November 17, 2021. Judged for his statements against young migrants, calling them "thieves," "rapists," and "murderers" last September, the polemicist charged with provocation to racial hatred did not appear at the hearing. While he has a lot to do on the judicial front, the multi-convicted journalist continues to make progress on the political scene. The voting intentions collected by different polling institutes in favor of the almost-candidate have indeed increased significantly since the beginning of September 2021. Although much of French media seems to focus largely on these voting intentions, reinforcing the media bubble effect around Zemmour, it also seems useful to look in more detail at the composition of his potential electorate.
On the other hand, the gender and age of voters seem to be determining factors. The potential electorate of Zemmour is, for the moment, mostly masculine. If the far-right parties often have difficulties with regard to the female electorate, Marine Le Pen had managed to reduce the gap in voting between women and men during the 2017 elections. As of October 2021, only eight percent of women under 35 intended to vote for Zemmour in 2021.
Thus, while a good number of French people are convinced of the danger that Zemmour represents for democracy, the majority of women, particularly among the most wealthy professional categories, are worried about the future of women's rights if Zemmour is elected in April 2022.
From which political camps do voters come?
Among Eric Zemmour's potential voters, more than a third, 34.8 percent, come from French people who voted for Marine Le Pen in 2017, which makes the voters of the Rassemblement National the polemicist's primary vote source. Unsurprisingly, the far-right candidate is therefore under heavy pressure: she has indeed dropped eight points in voting intentions between early September and mid-November 2021. However, the disappointed of the Rassemblement National are not the only ones to be attracted by Eric Zemmour, and the contribution of voters from the government's right wing largely participates in the growing dynamics of the polemicist. The French who voted for François Fillon in 2017 represent nearly a quarter of his potential electorate. On the other hand, only about one out of ten voting intentions comes from voters having expressed themselves in favor of a personality further to the left than François Fillon in 2017.Socio-demographic profile of potential voters
If the level of education is often considered to be one of the factors allowing the closest predictions to reality, this parameter seems to have little effect on the electorate of Eric Zemmour. Indeed, while differences in the educational background of the voters are very clearly reflected in the voters of Marine Le Pen, this does not apply to his opponent: French people who have completed two years of higher education after obtaining the baccalaureate and holders of a vocational training certificate are almost equally likely to vote for him.On the other hand, the gender and age of voters seem to be determining factors. The potential electorate of Zemmour is, for the moment, mostly masculine. If the far-right parties often have difficulties with regard to the female electorate, Marine Le Pen had managed to reduce the gap in voting between women and men during the 2017 elections. As of October 2021, only eight percent of women under 35 intended to vote for Zemmour in 2021.
Thus, while a good number of French people are convinced of the danger that Zemmour represents for democracy, the majority of women, particularly among the most wealthy professional categories, are worried about the future of women's rights if Zemmour is elected in April 2022.
