Population share of climate migrants globally 2050, by region

By 2050, internal climate migrants may account for more than six percent of the population in North Africa and roughly 3.5 percent of the population of Sub-Saharan Africa. This estimate is based on a pessimistic scenario of high greenhouse gases emission and unequal development. Across the six regions studied, over 2.3 percent of the population is projected to be displaced by the mid-century.

Who are the climate migrants?

Climate migrants leave their homes due to unfavorable or harsh environmental changes influenced by global climate change. Estimating or pinpointing new regions where these climate stressors are the causal link for migration requires complex models or calculations. As migration is not solely based on climate change, socio-economic factors, such as political stability, failing economies, or human rights abuses play a substantial role.

Concerns of rising temperatures

Since the Industrial Revolution, the global average surface temperature has risen by over one degree Celsius. This temperature rise brings unfamiliar local weather patterns, making some types of extreme weather events more frequent. In recent years, the number of people displaced by weather disasters has increased due to unfavorable conditions such as heatwaves, droughts, increased rainfall, flooding, and sea-level rise.