CO₂ emissions forecast by scenario Russia 2050

Russia emitted nearly 2.12 billion metric tons of CO₂ equivalent of carbon dioxide (CO₂) in 2019. Under the basic scenario of a low-carbon strategy of the country, the volume of CO₂ emissions was expected to increase by 2050, reaching nearly 2.3 billion metric tons of CO₂ equivalent in that year. The intensive scenario forecast a decrease by approximately 360 million metric tons of CO₂ equivalent between 2019 and 2050.

Carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in Russia in 2019 with a forecast for 2050 (in million metric tons of CO₂ equivalent)

Characteristic	Emissions in million metric tons of CO₂ equivalent
2050 intensive scenario*	1,763
2050 basic scenario*	2,294
2019 actual	2,119

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Release date

August 2021

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Region

Russia

Survey time period

2019

Supplementary notes

* Forecast according to the project of Russia's climate strategy until 2050.
According to the document, the basic scenario does not include obligatory payments for emissions. The reduction of emissions is planned through realization of climate projects in forests and using a revised methodology of absorption capacity. Those measures would include planting forests, reducing fires, and watering drained swamps. Spending on realization of the basic scenario would be 1.5% of the GDP.

The intensive scenario includes obligatory payments for emissions in the most carbon-intensive industries, programs to support renewable energy generation, carbon capture, and carbon disposal. The scenario would only be possible given an increased investment activity of Russian companies, growth in foreign investment, and absence of international restrictions for realization of climate projects in Russia by domestic and foreign companies. Spending on realization of the intensive scenario would be 4% of the GDP.

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