Extreme weather events, such as heat waves, are likely to become more frequent or more intense within the next few years. The risk of extreme temperature events, currently expected to occur once every 50 years, will be nearly 39.2 times more likely to occur at global warming level of 4.0°C.
Projected frequency of semi-centennial extreme temperature events worldwide due to global warming as of 2021
Characteristic
Frequency per fifty years
1°C
4.8
1.5°C
8.6
2°C
13.9
4°C
39.2
Created with Highcharts 7.2.2Frequency per fifty years4.84.88.68.613.913.939.239.21°C1.5°C2°C4°C
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frequency in intensity of extreme temperature event that occurred once in 50 years on average in a climate without human influence.
Supplementary notes
Projected changes are shown at global warming levels of 1°C, 1.5°C, 2°C, and 4°C and are relative to 1850-1900 representing a climate without human influence. The frequencies of 50-year extreme events from the base period.
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Erick Burgueño Salas
Research expert covering climate change and the water industry
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UNEP, & World Meteorological Organization, & IPCC. (August 9, 2021). Projected frequency of semi-centennial extreme temperature events worldwide due to global warming as of 2021 [Graph]. In Statista. Retrieved April 29, 2025, from https://www.statista.com/statistics/1257476/projected-extreme-temperature-global/
UNEP, und World Meteorological Organization, und IPCC. "Projected frequency of semi-centennial extreme temperature events worldwide due to global warming as of 2021." Chart. August 9, 2021. Statista. Accessed April 29, 2025. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1257476/projected-extreme-temperature-global/
UNEP, World Meteorological Organization, IPCC. (2021). Projected frequency of semi-centennial extreme temperature events worldwide due to global warming as of 2021. Statista. Statista Inc.. Accessed: April 29, 2025. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1257476/projected-extreme-temperature-global/
UNEP, and World Meteorological Organization, and IPCC. "Projected Frequency of Semi-centennial Extreme Temperature Events Worldwide Due to Global Warming as of 2021." Statista, Statista Inc., 9 Aug 2021, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1257476/projected-extreme-temperature-global/
UNEP & World Meteorological Organization & IPCC, Projected frequency of semi-centennial extreme temperature events worldwide due to global warming as of 2021 Statista, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1257476/projected-extreme-temperature-global/ (last visited April 29, 2025)
Projected frequency of semi-centennial extreme temperature events worldwide due to global warming as of 2021 [Graph], UNEP, & World Meteorological Organization, & IPCC, August 9, 2021. [Online]. Available: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1257476/projected-extreme-temperature-global/
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