U.S. monthly projected recession probability 2020-2025
By May 2025, it is projected that there is a probability of 51.82 percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a slight increase from the projection of the preceding month, but is down from the January 2025 projection of 61.47 percent. The U.S. recession probabilities are predicted a year in advance by using the difference between 10-year and 3-month treasury rates.