Buy now, pay later (BNPL) share in e-commerce in 41 countries worldwide 2016-2023

In 2022, eight out of 10 top global buy now, pay later (BNPL) markets worldwide were in northwestern Europe as consumers looked for new e-commerce payment methods. The market share of BNPL services in domestic e-commerce payments in both Sweden and Germany was around ten times higher than the same market share in global e-commerce payments. The popularity of Sweden's BNPL provider Klarna may be at the heart of this, one of the most used online payment methods among German consumers in 2023.

Is BNPL still growing?

The global buy now, pay later market size will increase by nearly 450 billion USD between 2021 and 2026. This would mean a further acceleration of growth. Whether the cost of living crisis impacts these figures is not immediately clear. Some believe it may drive consumers to use buy now, pay later more often. On the other hand, a global economic downturn led Klarna's private-market valuation to fall by 85 percent in 2022. Consequently, the company laid off 700 employees.

Brand preference varies per country

The country of origin of a BNPL brand can impact its adoption. Estimates based on website tracking and the technologies used within them reveal that merchants from Sweden, and especially its neighboring countries, offered Klarna relatively more often than anywhere else. This extended beyond the Nordics. Merchants from Australia and New Zealand were more likely to offer Afterpay - which comes from Australia - than e-commerce websites from other parts of the world. The United States is home to several major brands like Affirm, Sezzle, and Zip. These face competition from PayPal.