Projected diesel and electric heavy-duty truck purchase costs 2020-2030

Between 2020 and 2030, the purchase cost for electric heavy-duty trucks is projected to drop by over half, compared with 2020 to some 177,000 U.S. dollars. The trend for diesel vehicles is the opposite. While purchase costs are forecasted to remain stable until 2025, they will increase by some 3,500 U.S. dollars by 2030.

Projected production increase

The production of battery electric heavy-duty trucks in Western Europe is projected to represent 14 percent of the total heavy-duty truck production in the region in 2030. As purchase costs decrease and demand rises, production is anticipated to shoot up to 35 percent in 2030. Electric heavy commercial vehicles tend to be overall more expensive than their diesel or other alternative fuel counterparts due to the need for specific charging infrastructures and charging time. Lighter medium-duty electric trucks, by contrast, had similar production percentage values in 2030 and 2030 but lower purchase costs.

A slow European alternative fuel market

Over 39,700 battery-electric commercial vehicles were registered in Europe in 2020. Less than one percent of these were heavy-duty trucks, a dip of 59 units compared to 2019. Diesel is still the leading fuel type for new medium and heavy commercial vehicle sales, dwarfing alternative fuels and petrol, in part due to the total costs of ownership for alternative fuel trucks. However, a slow shift in European emissions is expected to contribute to an increase in demand for alternative fuels, ultimately leading to the projected production increase on the one hand and lower purchase costs on the other hand.