Working-age population in China 1980-2050

In 2023, about 982.9 million people in China were estimated by the UN to be at a working age between 15 and 64 years. After a steep increase in the second half of the 20th century, the size of the working-age population reached a turning point in 2015 and figures started to decrease thereafter. 

Changes in the working-age population

China's demographic development is characterized by a rapid change from a high fertility rate to a low one. This has caused the development of an arc shaped graph of the working age population: quickly increasing numbers before 2010, a gradual turn with a minor second peak until around 2027, and a steep decline thereafter. The expected second maximum of the graph results from the abolishment of birth control measures after 2010, which proved less successful in increasing birth figures than expected. The same turn can be seen in the number of people eligible for work, with an accelerated downturn in the years of the coronavirus pandemic, where many people left the labor force. It is very likely that the size of the labor force will rebound slightly in the upcoming years, but the extent of the rebound, which parallels the second maximum of the working age population, might be limited.

China's labor market

China's labor market was once defined by its abundant and cheap labor force, but competition for talent has been getting increasingly tense in recent years. This development is very likely to further intensify and extend itself into the less skilled ranks of the labor market. As the number of people who fall within the retirement age group is increasing and adding to the burden on the economy, steps to keep labor participation high are necessary. Raising the retirement age and providing incentives to stay in the labor force, are measures being implemented by Chinese government. Strategies to increase labor productivity would be ideal to mitigate the pressure on the Chinese economy, however, realizing such strategies is challenging.