Forecasted real GDP growth rate in India FY 2020-2023, by scenario

A research from Deloitte shows three estimations based on different scenarios, ranging from optimism to extreme pessimism, of India’s real GDP growth rate. In scenario one, with mass vaccination, the local spread of the virus may see significant reduction and there will be no further outbreaks. Meanwhile, as the stimulus and reforms come into effect, the economy can be expected to reach pre-Covid-19 pandemic levels around end of 2021. However, in scenario two, as the pandemic continues to affect Indian society, and the governmental spending and reforms are limited by the impact, the economy is expected to reach pre-crisis levels in mid-2022. In scenario three, the most pessimistic estimation, Indian economy will only recover at the end of financial year 2023.