Nigeria is the fifth country in sub-Saharan Africa at risk of genocide. Worldwide, Nigeria ranked 12th as of 2024. The risk percentage of mass killing stood at 3.2 percent, dropping from 7.9 percent in the preceding year. Many different forms of violence and conflicts are often ongoing in Nigeria, mainly in the North due to the rooted presence of Boko Haram. In addition, different armed groups are operating in the country, like those in the Niger Delta and South-East Zone.
Nevertheless, the source does not consider violence caused by those running conflicts and separatist movements as criteria for mass killings. Despite the high number of deaths caused by terrorism, these groups do not act against a particular group of civilians. According to the source, Nigeria's high position in the ranking is determined by criteria which include its large population of over 200 million people, its high child mortality rate, the ongoing battle-related deaths, the country's history of mass killing, and its degree of ethnic fractionalization.
The source does not mention a release date. The date of access was taken as the release date.
The source measures the risk by identifying historical instances of mass killing, discerning patterns that distinguished countries that experienced mass killing from others, and then applying that model to the latest publicly available data to estimate the likelihood of a new mass killing.
The source indicates Nigeria as a country with an ongoing mass killing episode.
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Early Warning Project. (March 26, 2024). Risk of genocide in Nigeria between 2017 and 2024 [Graph]. In Statista. Retrieved July 22, 2024, from https://www.statista.com/statistics/1203253/risk-of-genocide-in-nigeria/
Early Warning Project. "Risk of genocide in Nigeria between 2017 and 2024." Chart. March 26, 2024. Statista. Accessed July 22, 2024. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1203253/risk-of-genocide-in-nigeria/
Early Warning Project. (2024). Risk of genocide in Nigeria between 2017 and 2024. Statista. Statista Inc.. Accessed: July 22, 2024. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1203253/risk-of-genocide-in-nigeria/
Early Warning Project. "Risk of Genocide in Nigeria between 2017 and 2024." Statista, Statista Inc., 26 Mar 2024, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1203253/risk-of-genocide-in-nigeria/
Early Warning Project, Risk of genocide in Nigeria between 2017 and 2024 Statista, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1203253/risk-of-genocide-in-nigeria/ (last visited July 22, 2024)
Risk of genocide in Nigeria between 2017 and 2024 [Graph], Early Warning Project, March 26, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1203253/risk-of-genocide-in-nigeria/
