COVID-19 herd immunity path forecast U.S. 2021

For February 21, 2021, it was estimated that around 33 percent of the U.S. population was immune to COVID-19. According to the latest modeling, herd immunity - if estimated at around 70 percent of a population being immune to the virus - will probably not be reached in the course of 2021. Several reasons can be mentioned, among others: new and more infectious variants of the virus, vaccination hesitancy, and the lack of a vaccine for children. However, it is still not totally clear what percentage of a population needs to be immune to COVID-19 for there to be herd immunity against the disease. As the data shows, it is possible that from summer 2021 on something near herd immunity - or: a state closer to normal life - could be reached.

Projected path to reach estimated COVID-19 herd immunity at 70% in the United States as of March 1, 2021

Characteristic	Immunity % from infection only	Immunity % from vaccination/past infection	Immunity % from vaccination only	Missing % until herd immunity reached
Dec 28	11	16	39	4
Dec 18	11	16	38	5
Dec 8	11	16	38	5
Nov 28	12	15	38	5
Nov 18	12	15	37	6
Nov 8	13	15	37	5
Oct 29	13	15	36	6
Oct 19	13	15	36	6
Oct 9	14	15	36	5
Sep 29	14	14	35	7
Sep 19	15	14	35	6
Sep 9	15	14	34	7
Aug 30	16	14	34	6
Aug 20	16	14	34	6
Aug 10	16	14	34	6
Jul 31	17	14	33	6
Jul 20	17	14	33	6
Jul 11	18	13	33	6
Jul 1	18	13	32	7
Jun 21	18	13	32	7
Jun 11	19	13	31	7
Jun 1	20	12	30	8
May 22	21	11	28	10
May 12	22	10	25	13
May 2	23	8	22	17
Apr 22	24	7	18	21
Apr 12	24	6	15	25
Apr 2	25	5	12	28
Mar 23	25	4	10	31
Mar 13	26	3	8	33
Mar 3	26	2	7	35
Feb 21	26	2	5	37
Feb 11	27	1	3	39
Feb 1	27	1	2	40
Jan 22	26	0	1	43

Loading statistic...

Download

Source

Show detailed source information?

Already a member?

Sources

Use Ask Statista Research Service

Release date

March 2021

More information

Region

United States

Survey time period

as of March 1, 2021

Supplementary notes

Projections and estimates of COVID-19 developments are an ongoing process, often covered almost in real time. Thus, the values in this statistic and in the original source can differ significantly due to short-term changes and updates.
For more information about the methodology please visit the website of the source.

Citation formats