Office net absorption worldwide forecast 2019-2024

The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has led to major cyclical and structural changes in the office real estate sector. As a result of the economic downturn and rising unemployment, along with an increasing share of businesses that introduce the option to work from home, office real estate demand in certain regions worldwide is forecast see a short term decline. In the United States, net office absorption is forecast to fall to - 59.1 and -61.8 million square feet in 2020 and 2021, but will likely pick up in 2023 and surpass the pre pandemic levels in 2024.

Net absorption of office space worldwide in 2019 and forecast from 2020 to 2024, by region (in million square feet)

Characteristic	Asia Pacific	Greater China	Europe	United States	Canada
-	-	-	-	-	-
-	-	-	-	-	-
-	-	-	-	-	-
-	-	-	-	-	-
-	-	-	-	-	-
-	-	-	-	-	-

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Release date

September 2020

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Region

Worldwide, Canada, Europe, China, United States, APAC

Survey time period

2019

Supplementary notes

The source defines net absorption as "the net change in occupied inventory, which captures the net effect of move-ins (associated with leasing activity) and move-outs".
The forecast shows a baseline scenario with the following assumptions: "A vaccine is available by mid-2021 after medical/government approval by the end of 2020.
• No major second wave that requires widespread lockdowns.
• Businesses reopen gradually as the virus still ebbs and flows until a vaccine is available.
• Bankruptcies pick up as businesses adjust to lower demand and policy support expires in certain countries.
• Financial market sentiment improves in 2020 H2.
• Improving global demand supports a recovery in trade flows and commodity prices.
• Real GDP returns to pre-COVID-19 levels by 2021 Q3."

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