Projected CO2 emissions intensity of aviation worldwide

As a contributor to global climate change, the aviation industry is also subject to emission level abatement regulations and plans. According to the 2014 Paris Climate Agreement, it is forecasted that the emission intensity of the aviation industry will improve immensely gradually. In the 2 Degree (high efficiency) scenario, emissions from the global aviation industry are estimated to decrease down to 375 grams of carbon dioxide (CO₂) per revenue tonne kilometers (RTK).

Projected CO₂ emissions intensity in the aviation industry in 2025 and 2030, by scenario (in grams of CO₂ per RTK)*

Characteristic	2025	2030
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Release date

2019

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Region

Worldwide

Survey time period

2014

Supplementary notes

* CO₂ intensity is measured through dividing total CO₂ emission by per revenue tonne kilometer (RPK). RTK incorporates both the number of revenue passenger kilometers(RPK) and freight in terms of tonnes, which is multiplied by the distance an aircraft covers.
Figures are estimates derived from 2014 values.
The International Pledges scenario is derived from the COP 23 Paris Agreement voluntary commitments of countries and organizations to alleviate climate change. This scenario reflects the business-as-usual trend.
The 2 Degrees (shift-improve) scenario is based on the commitments (theoretical) to reduce global warming average temperature below two degrees Celsius. This scenario presumes changes in the types of travel means, such as shifting to energy-efficient modes of travel, fuel efficiency improvement, and lower air passenger traffic.
The 2 Degrees (high efficiency) scenario assumes no shift to more environmentally friendly modes of transport, which is aligned with the International Pledges scenario's assumption. In this model, environmentally viable levels of emissions should be attained through fuel efficiency and higher penetration of sustainable biofuels.

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