Projected new COVID-19 cases per day by scenario U.S. 2020

Based on projections made on December 17, the number of new cases of COVID-19 per day, including those not tested, by the end of March 2021 could range from 70,797 to 222,786 in the United States, depending on the scenario. The best case scenario being 95 percent mask usage universally and the worst case being continued easing of social distancing mandates. This statistic shows the projected number of new COVID-19 cases per day in the U.S. from December 1, 2020 to March 31, 2021 based on three different scenarios, as of December 17.

Projected number of new COVID-19 cases per day in the United States from Dec. 1, 2020 to Mar. 31, 2021, by scenario*

Characteristic	Current projection	Mandates easing	Universal masks
31-Mar	113,652	222,786	70,797
30-Mar	117,479	231,818	73,280
29-Mar	121,413	241,152	75,833
28-Mar	125,444	250,781	78,452
27-Mar	129,485	260,538	81,081
26-Mar	133,526	270,393	83,711
25-Mar	137,743	280,681	86,451
24-Mar	142,148	291,435	89,311
23-Mar	146,652	302,494	92,236
22-Mar	151,263	313,873	95,229
21-Mar	155,988	325,586	98,297
20-Mar	160,721	337,412	101,369
19-Mar	165,433	349,293	104,431
18-Mar	170,318	361,622	107,608
17-Mar	175,408	374,450	110,915
16-Mar	180,594	387,558	114,279
15-Mar	185,856	400,931	117,691
14-Mar	191,211	414,590	121,166
13-Mar	196,553	428,299	124,634
12-Mar	201,862	442,011	128,080
11-Mar	207,332	456,144	131,634
10-Mar	213,003	470,764	135,318
9-Mar	218,830	485,755	139,095
8-Mar	224,751	501,001	142,931
7-Mar	230,754	516,465	146,823
6-Mar	236,719	531,890	150,697
5-Mar	242,621	547,198	154,531
4-Mar	248,677	562,824	158,459
3-Mar	254,893	578,820	162,496
2-Mar	261,159	594,916	166,583
1-Mar	267,488	611,092	170,718
28-Feb	273,900	627,423	174,913
27-Feb	280,255	643,593	179,084
26-Feb	286,527	659,481	183,199
25-Feb	292,908	675,512	187,386
24-Feb	299,462	691,768	191,674
23-Feb	306,045	707,958	195,979
22-Feb	312,593	723,990	200,278
21-Feb	319,198	739,959	204,609
20-Feb	325,799	755,645	208,918
19-Feb	332,319	770,895	213,172
18-Feb	338,905	786,041	217,469
17-Feb	345,607	801,138	221,841
16-Feb	352,312	815,988	226,211
15-Feb	359,030	830,551	230,599
14-Feb	365,784	844,807	235,030
13-Feb	372,487	858,559	239,424
12-Feb	379,118	871,688	243,781
11-Feb	385,750	884,408	248,163
10-Feb	392,419	896,773	252,594
9-Feb	399,117	908,665	257,076
8-Feb	405,855	920,061	261,612
7-Feb	412,601	930,970	266,175
6-Feb	419,254	941,243	270,713
5-Feb	425,800	950,745	275,246
4-Feb	432,294	959,506	279,806
3-Feb	438,720	967,535	284,378
2-Feb	445,119	974,902	288,974
1-Feb	451,467	981,597	293,603
31-Jan	457,763	987,556	298,263
30-Jan	464,069	992,774	302,988
29-Jan	470,330	997,230	307,731
28-Jan	476,485	1,000,907	312,526
27-Jan	482,535	1,003,753	317,341
26-Jan	488,518	1,005,880	322,138
25-Jan	494,399	1,007,278	327,010
24-Jan	500,225	1,007,930	331,952
23-Jan	506,040	1,007,973	336,953
22-Jan	511,813	1,007,306	341,980
21-Jan	517,322	1,005,559	346,950
20-Jan	522,629	1,002,875	351,920
19-Jan	527,901	999,543	356,929
18-Jan	533,114	995,553	361,994
17-Jan	538,290	990,923	367,198
16-Jan	543,640	985,917	372,629
15-Jan	549,045	980,440	378,229
14-Jan	554,118	973,895	383,776
13-Jan	558,864	966,379	389,272
12-Jan	563,509	958,373	394,831
11-Jan	568,056	949,817	400,419
10-Jan	572,452	940,841	406,092
9-Jan	577,090	931,847	412,130
8-Jan	581,975	922,771	418,527
7-Jan	586,522	912,956	424,874
6-Jan	590,703	902,505	431,240
5-Jan	594,714	891,818	437,913
4-Jan	598,707	880,794	444,920
3-Jan	602,437	869,329	452,187
2-Jan	608,607	861,162	461,874
1-Jan	614,606	852,614	471,891
31-Dec	617,844	840,413	480,219
30-Dec	621,244	828,242	488,984
29-Dec	624,240	815,405	497,675
28-Dec	626,620	802,056	506,108
27-Dec	628,650	788,675	514,464
26-Dec	630,433	775,272	522,785
25-Dec	631,711	761,846	530,773
24-Dec	632,535	748,796	538,320
23-Dec	632,332	736,037	544,685
22-Dec	629,512	722,718	552,378
21-Dec	650,645	708,919	585,142
20-Dec	678,444	695,239	624,033
19-Dec	678,048	681,703	636,971
18-Dec	666,729	668,305	638,505
17-Dec	654,160	655,481	637,625
16-Dec	641,894	643,109	636,073
15-Dec	629,214	630,343	628,301
14-Dec	616,626	617,355	615,523
13-Dec	604,421	604,604	603,449
12-Dec	592,086	592,086	591,299
11-Dec	579,786	579,786	579,195
10-Dec	568,143	568,143	567,734
9-Dec	557,096	557,096	556,857
8-Dec	545,768	545,768	545,689
7-Dec	534,293	-	-
6-Dec	523,200	-	-
5-Dec	511,967	-	-
4-Dec	500,468	-	-
3-Dec	489,745	-	-
2-Dec	479,998	-	-
1-Dec	470,581	-	-

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Release date

December 2020

More information

Region

United States

Survey time period

as of December 17, 2020

Supplementary notes

* Estimates include those not tested.
Current projection: Mandates are re-imposed for six weeks whenever daily deaths reach eight per million.
Mandates easing: Continued easing of social distancing mandates, and mandates are not re-imposed.
Universal masks: 95% mask usage in every location, with mandates re-imposed for six weeks if daily deaths reach eight per million.

Statista's COVID-19 content is compiled from various sources. Although all of these sources are reliable, this may result in discrepancies in figures among different statistics, graphs, and charts.

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