Based on projections made on December 17, the number of new cases of COVID-19 per day, including those not tested, by the end of March 2021 could range from 70,797 to 222,786 in the United States, depending on the scenario. The best case scenario being 95 percent mask usage universally and the worst case being continued easing of social distancing mandates. This statistic shows the projected number of new COVID-19 cases per day in the U.S. from December 1, 2020 to March 31, 2021 based on three different scenarios, as of December 17.
Projected number of new COVID-19 cases per day in the United States from Dec. 1, 2020 to Mar. 31, 2021, by scenario*
Characteristic
Current projection
Mandates easing
Universal masks
31-Mar
113,652
222,786
70,797
30-Mar
117,479
231,818
73,280
29-Mar
121,413
241,152
75,833
28-Mar
125,444
250,781
78,452
27-Mar
129,485
260,538
81,081
26-Mar
133,526
270,393
83,711
25-Mar
137,743
280,681
86,451
24-Mar
142,148
291,435
89,311
23-Mar
146,652
302,494
92,236
22-Mar
151,263
313,873
95,229
21-Mar
155,988
325,586
98,297
20-Mar
160,721
337,412
101,369
19-Mar
165,433
349,293
104,431
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* Estimates include those not tested.
Current projection: Mandates are re-imposed for six weeks whenever daily deaths reach eight per million.
Mandates easing: Continued easing of social distancing mandates, and mandates are not re-imposed.
Universal masks: 95% mask usage in every location, with mandates re-imposed for six weeks if daily deaths reach eight per million.
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IHME. (December 17, 2020). Projected number of new COVID-19 cases per day in the United States from Dec. 1, 2020 to Mar. 31, 2021, by scenario* [Graph]. In Statista. Retrieved April 25, 2025, from https://www.statista.com/statistics/1176657/covid-projected-new-cases-per-day-by-scenario-us/
IHME. "Projected number of new COVID-19 cases per day in the United States from Dec. 1, 2020 to Mar. 31, 2021, by scenario*." Chart. December 17, 2020. Statista. Accessed April 25, 2025. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1176657/covid-projected-new-cases-per-day-by-scenario-us/
IHME. (2020). Projected number of new COVID-19 cases per day in the United States from Dec. 1, 2020 to Mar. 31, 2021, by scenario*. Statista. Statista Inc.. Accessed: April 25, 2025. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1176657/covid-projected-new-cases-per-day-by-scenario-us/
IHME. "Projected Number of New Covid-19 Cases per Day in The United States from Dec. 1, 2020 to Mar. 31, 2021, by Scenario*." Statista, Statista Inc., 17 Dec 2020, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1176657/covid-projected-new-cases-per-day-by-scenario-us/
IHME, Projected number of new COVID-19 cases per day in the United States from Dec. 1, 2020 to Mar. 31, 2021, by scenario* Statista, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1176657/covid-projected-new-cases-per-day-by-scenario-us/ (last visited April 25, 2025)
Projected number of new COVID-19 cases per day in the United States from Dec. 1, 2020 to Mar. 31, 2021, by scenario* [Graph], IHME, December 17, 2020. [Online]. Available: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1176657/covid-projected-new-cases-per-day-by-scenario-us/
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