Projected COVID-19 deaths by scenario U.S. 2021

Based on projections made on December 17, the number of deaths due to COVID-19 in the United States by the end of March 2021 could range from 505,894 to 713,674 depending on the scenario. The best case scenario being 95 percent mask usage universally and the worst case being continued easing of social distancing mandates. This statistic shows the projected number of deaths due to COVID-19 in the U.S. from December 1, 2020 to March 31, 2021 based on three different scenarios, as of December 17.

Projected number of COVID-19 deaths in the United States from Dec. 1, 2020 to Mar. 31, 2021, by scenario*

Characteristic	Current projection	Mandates easing	Universal masks
31-Mar	560,972	713,674	505,894
30-Mar	560,253	712,089	505,441
29-Mar	559,508	710,443	504,971
28-Mar	558,739	708,734	504,486
27-Mar	557,945	706,960	503,984
26-Mar	557,125	705,120	503,466
25-Mar	556,278	703,213	502,930
24-Mar	555,405	701,238	502,377
23-Mar	554,505	699,193	501,806
22-Mar	553,578	697,079	501,217
21-Mar	552,622	694,893	500,610
20-Mar	551,638	692,635	499,985
19-Mar	550,625	690,300	499,340
18-Mar	549,581	687,887	498,675
17-Mar	548,504	685,392	497,989
16-Mar	547,394	682,813	497,282
15-Mar	546,249	680,145	496,551
14-Mar	545,068	677,386	495,796
13-Mar	543,847	674,532	495,016
12-Mar	542,588	671,582	494,210
11-Mar	541,287	668,533	493,377
10-Mar	539,945	665,385	492,517
9-Mar	538,561	662,136	491,630
8-Mar	537,133	658,787	490,714
7-Mar	535,663	655,338	489,770
6-Mar	534,148	651,789	488,798
5-Mar	532,589	648,139	487,796
4-Mar	530,985	644,390	486,765
3-Mar	529,336	640,543	485,705
2-Mar	527,642	636,599	484,614
1-Mar	525,901	632,560	483,494
28-Feb	524,115	628,428	482,344
27-Feb	522,284	624,205	481,163
26-Feb	520,406	619,893	479,952
25-Feb	518,481	615,494	478,709
24-Feb	516,509	611,009	477,436
23-Feb	514,490	606,442	476,130
22-Feb	512,424	601,796	474,793
21-Feb	510,311	597,076	473,424
20-Feb	508,153	592,287	472,023
19-Feb	505,951	587,433	470,591
18-Feb	503,705	582,520	469,128
17-Feb	501,415	577,552	467,634
16-Feb	499,081	572,533	466,108
15-Feb	496,703	567,467	464,551
14-Feb	494,281	562,355	462,960
13-Feb	491,815	557,202	461,336
12-Feb	489,304	552,010	459,678
11-Feb	486,749	546,784	457,986
10-Feb	484,150	541,528	456,260
9-Feb	481,508	536,246	454,498
8-Feb	478,822	530,944	452,701
7-Feb	476,094	525,626	450,870
6-Feb	473,323	520,297	449,003
5-Feb	470,513	514,963	447,101
4-Feb	467,662	509,629	445,163
3-Feb	464,770	504,297	443,189
2-Feb	461,838	498,972	441,177
1-Feb	458,867	493,660	439,129
31-Jan	455,858	488,365	437,044
30-Jan	452,813	483,095	434,922
29-Jan	449,735	477,856	432,765
28-Jan	446,626	472,654	430,572
27-Jan	443,488	467,492	428,344
26-Jan	440,318	462,374	426,079
25-Jan	437,119	457,299	423,777
24-Jan	433,889	452,270	421,435
23-Jan	430,629	447,287	419,051
22-Jan	427,338	442,353	416,625
21-Jan	424,016	437,467	414,151
20-Jan	420,660	432,626	411,627
19-Jan	417,272	427,833	409,052
18-Jan	413,853	423,089	406,423
17-Jan	410,402	418,396	403,739
16-Jan	406,926	413,761	401,001
15-Jan	403,427	409,190	398,210
14-Jan	399,909	404,685	395,368
13-Jan	396,374	400,248	392,473
12-Jan	392,825	395,879	389,529
11-Jan	389,265	391,579	386,538
10-Jan	385,700	387,348	383,501
9-Jan	382,109	383,186	380,391
8-Jan	378,460	379,096	377,171
7-Jan	374,751	375,081	373,831
6-Jan	370,998	371,141	370,380
5-Jan	367,220	367,277	366,835
4-Jan	363,458	363,489	363,237
3-Jan	359,753	359,774	359,637
2-Jan	356,119	356,132	356,060
1-Jan	352,554	352,562	352,524
31-Dec	349,061	349,065	349,041
30-Dec	345,638	345,639	345,624
29-Dec	342,284	342,284	342,274
28-Dec	338,998	338,998	338,992
27-Dec	335,778	335,778	335,775
26-Dec	332,624	332,624	332,622
25-Dec	329,533	329,533	329,533
24-Dec	326,507	326,507	326,507
23-Dec	323,545	323,545	323,545
22-Dec	320,646	320,646	320,646
21-Dec	317,809	317,809	317,809
20-Dec	315,033	315,033	315,033
19-Dec	312,314	312,314	312,314
18-Dec	309,648	309,648	309,648
17-Dec	307,032	307,032	307,032
16-Dec	304,462	304,462	304,462
15-Dec	301,935	301,935	301,935
14-Dec	299,450	299,450	299,450
13-Dec	296,992	296,992	296,992
12-Dec	294,567	294,567	294,567
11-Dec	292,177	292,177	292,177
10-Dec	289,824	289,824	289,824
9-Dec	287,505	287,505	287,505
8-Dec	285,222	285,222	285,222
7-Dec	282,976	282,976	282,976
6-Dec	251,159	251,159	251,159
5-Dec	251,128	251,128	251,128
4-Dec	262,071	262,071	262,071
3-Dec	259,700	259,700	259,700
2-Dec	257,212	257,212	257,212
1-Dec	269,323	269,323	269,323

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Release date

December 2020

More information

Region

United States

Survey time period

as of December 17, 2020

Supplementary notes

* Current projection: Mandates are re-imposed for six weeks whenever daily deaths reach eight per million.
Mandates easing: Continued easing of social distancing mandates, and mandates are not re-imposed.
Universal masks: 95% mask usage in every location, with mandates re-imposed for six weeks if daily deaths reach eight per million.

Statista's COVID-19 content is compiled from various sources. Although all of these sources are reliable, this may result in discrepancies in figures among different statistics, graphs, and charts.

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