Projected COVID-19 cases per day by scenario worldwide 2021

Based on projections made on December 17, the number of new cases of COVID-19 per day, including those not tested, could range from 901 thousand to 3.4 million worldwide by March 31, 2021, depending on the scenario. The best case scenario being 95 percent mask usage universally and the worst case being continued easing of social distancing mandates. This statistic shows the projected number of new COVID-19 cases per day worldwide from December 1, 2020 to March 31, 2021 based on three different scenarios, as of December 17.

Projected number of new COVID-19 cases worldwide per day from Dec. 1, 2020 to Mar. 31, 2021, by scenario*

Characteristic	Current projection	Mandates easing	Universal masks
31-Mar	2,617,050	3,362,452	901,923
30-Mar	2,649,994	3,417,634	918,223
29-Mar	2,684,291	3,474,784	935,186
28-Mar	2,718,491	3,531,907	952,304
27-Mar	2,752,590	3,589,013	969,618
26-Mar	2,786,853	3,646,171	987,135
25-Mar	2,819,570	3,701,203	1,004,298
24-Mar	2,850,533	3,753,810	1,020,942
23-Mar	2,882,585	3,808,077	1,038,177
22-Mar	2,915,905	3,864,052	1,056,065
21-Mar	2,949,324	3,919,596	1,073,955
20-Mar	2,982,080	3,974,700	1,091,973
19-Mar	3,014,416	4,029,379	1,110,230
18-Mar	3,045,377	4,081,318	1,128,025
17-Mar	3,074,364	4,130,233	1,145,037
16-Mar	3,104,486	4,180,371	1,162,595
15-Mar	3,135,763	4,231,911	1,180,867
14-Mar	3,166,281	4,283,027	1,199,329
13-Mar	3,197,150	4,333,289	1,217,799
12-Mar	3,227,869	4,382,568	1,236,130
11-Mar	3,256,285	4,428,430	1,253,812
10-Mar	3,282,559	4,470,629	1,270,821
9-Mar	3,309,318	4,513,482	1,288,417
8-Mar	3,336,959	4,557,137	1,306,472
7-Mar	3,363,291	4,599,329	1,324,424
6-Mar	3,389,280	4,639,942	1,342,362
5-Mar	3,415,529	4,679,367	1,360,210
4-Mar	3,439,158	4,715,100	1,377,161
3-Mar	3,459,809	4,746,771	1,393,366
2-Mar	3,481,323	4,778,481	1,409,932
1-Mar	3,503,642	4,810,420	1,426,781
28-Feb	3,524,896	4,840,516	1,443,505
27-Feb	3,545,063	4,868,705	1,460,105
26-Feb	3,563,909	4,895,132	1,476,656
25-Feb	3,580,245	4,917,799	1,492,437
24-Feb	3,593,814	4,936,340	1,507,407
23-Feb	3,606,910	4,954,340	1,523,044
22-Feb	3,619,884	4,971,900	1,538,694
21-Feb	3,631,975	4,987,427	1,553,594
20-Feb	3,643,617	5,001,041	1,568,587
19-Feb	3,653,846	5,012,673	1,583,382
18-Feb	3,661,629	5,020,669	1,597,361
17-Feb	3,667,258	5,024,669	1,610,502
16-Feb	3,672,450	5,027,566	1,623,945
15-Feb	3,676,612	5,029,662	1,637,861
14-Feb	3,678,553	5,029,649	1,651,538
13-Feb	3,679,593	5,027,601	1,665,058
12-Feb	3,680,536	5,023,761	1,678,428
11-Feb	3,679,600	5,016,724	1,691,341
10-Feb	3,675,249	5,006,073	1,703,809
9-Feb	3,669,622	4,993,817	1,716,274
8-Feb	3,663,337	4,980,125	1,728,812
7-Feb	3,656,123	4,964,468	1,741,433
6-Feb	3,647,619	4,946,912	1,754,168
5-Feb	3,638,029	4,927,290	1,767,011
4-Feb	3,627,011	4,904,968	1,779,708
3-Feb	3,613,985	4,879,900	1,792,062
2-Feb	3,600,528	4,853,489	1,804,712
1-Feb	3,586,796	4,825,854	1,817,677
31-Jan	3,572,453	4,796,769	1,830,702
30-Jan	3,557,539	4,766,266	1,843,988
29-Jan	3,542,448	4,734,375	1,857,545
28-Jan	3,527,279	4,700,957	1,871,272
27-Jan	3,511,403	4,665,644	1,885,004
26-Jan	3,494,918	4,628,479	1,898,729
25-Jan	3,478,350	4,590,037	1,912,753
24-Jan	3,462,122	4,550,716	1,927,164
23-Jan	3,446,351	4,510,517	1,941,939
22-Jan	3,430,865	4,469,512	1,957,200
21-Jan	3,415,920	4,428,040	1,973,082
20-Jan	3,400,950	4,385,681	1,989,433
19-Jan	3,385,320	4,341,459	2,005,870
18-Jan	3,369,716	4,295,762	2,022,482
17-Jan	3,354,379	4,249,641	2,039,636
16-Jan	3,338,929	4,202,939	2,057,226
15-Jan	3,324,077	4,155,987	2,075,408
14-Jan	3,310,385	4,109,651	2,094,788
13-Jan	3,296,996	4,063,677	2,115,263
12-Jan	3,283,201	4,016,676	2,136,083
11-Jan	3,269,967	3,969,287	2,157,587
10-Jan	3,257,532	3,922,579	2,180,538
9-Jan	3,245,789	3,876,231	2,205,293
8-Jan	3,234,451	3,829,989	2,231,684
7-Jan	3,230,628	3,792,475	2,265,107
6-Jan	3,227,352	3,755,486	2,300,500
5-Jan	3,217,990	3,711,208	2,332,837
4-Jan	3,209,171	3,667,608	2,366,650
3-Jan	3,198,968	3,623,147	2,400,188
2-Jan	3,188,515	3,578,331	2,434,173
1-Jan	3,178,601	3,534,261	2,469,140
31-Dec	3,168,456	3,490,916	2,504,271
30-Dec	3,158,112	3,448,257	2,539,178
29-Dec	3,147,829	3,407,223	2,573,342
28-Dec	3,135,504	3,367,423	2,603,643
27-Dec	3,117,375	3,326,634	2,647,485
26-Dec	3,154,744	3,285,184	2,760,239
25-Dec	3,205,872	3,244,642	2,883,098
24-Dec	3,191,986	3,204,968	2,942,446
23-Dec	3,156,861	3,166,204	2,976,121
22-Dec	3,122,962	3,129,635	3,005,570
21-Dec	3,090,571	3,094,740	3,032,444
20-Dec	3,055,777	3,058,916	3,027,130
19-Dec	3,020,385	3,022,729	2,994,926
18-Dec	3,020,385	3,022,729	2,994,926
17-Dec	2,986,218	2,987,665	2,965,627
16-Dec	2,986,218	2,987,665	2,965,627
15-Dec	2,952,722	2,953,684	2,936,680
14-Dec	2,952,722	2,953,684	2,936,680
13-Dec	2,920,048	2,920,746	2,908,181
12-Dec	2,920,048	2,920,746	2,908,181
11-Dec	2,890,019	2,890,302	2,881,934
10-Dec	2,890,019	2,890,302	2,881,934
9-Dec	2,862,093	2,862,093	2,857,431
8-Dec	2,833,188	2,833,188	2,831,676
7-Dec	2,801,933	2,801,933	2,801,933
6-Dec	2,772,161	2,772,161	2,772,161
5-Dec	2,747,874	2,747,874	2,747,874
4-Dec	2,723,314	2,723,314	2,723,314
3-Dec	2,698,151	2,698,151	2,698,151
2-Dec	2,676,004	2,676,004	2,676,004
1-Dec	2,654,901	2,654,901	2,654,901

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Release date

December 2020

More information

Region

Worldwide

Survey time period

as of December 17, 2020

Supplementary notes

* Estimates include those not tested.
Current projection: Mandates are re-imposed for six weeks whenever daily deaths reach eight per million.
Mandates easing: Continued easing of social distancing mandates, and mandates are not re-imposed.
Universal masks: 95% mask usage in every location, with mandates re-imposed for six weeks if daily deaths reach eight per million.

Statista's COVID-19 content is compiled from various sources. Although all of these sources are reliable, this may result in discrepancies in figures among different statistics, graphs, and charts.

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