Projected COVID-19 deaths by scenario worldwide 2020

Based on projections made on December 17, the number of deaths due to COVID-19 by the end of March 2021 could range from 2.5 million to 3.3 million worldwide, depending on the scenario. The best case scenario being 95 percent mask usage universally and the worst case being continued easing of social distancing mandates. This statistic shows the projected number of deaths due to COVID-19 worldwide from December 1, 2020 to March 31, 2021 based on three different scenarios, as of December 17.

Projected number of coronavirus (COVID-19) deaths worldwide from Dec. 1, 2020 to Mar. 31, 2021, by scenario*

Characteristic	Current projection	Mandates easing	Universal masks
31-Mar	2,851,447	3,261,426	2,507,651
30-Mar	2,843,749	3,249,025	2,503,879
29-Mar	2,835,917	3,236,389	2,500,025
28-Mar	2,827,954	3,223,519	2,496,089
27-Mar	2,819,858	3,210,418	2,492,070
26-Mar	2,811,629	3,197,087	2,487,968
25-Mar	2,803,267	3,183,525	2,483,782
24-Mar	2,794,767	3,169,726	2,479,511
23-Mar	2,786,127	3,155,690	2,475,151
22-Mar	2,777,344	3,141,415	2,470,702
21-Mar	2,768,418	3,126,901	2,466,165
20-Mar	2,759,350	3,112,149	2,461,537
19-Mar	2,750,138	3,097,161	2,456,820
18-Mar	2,740,778	3,081,935	2,452,010
17-Mar	2,731,265	3,066,471	2,447,106
16-Mar	2,721,604	3,050,772	2,442,109
15-Mar	2,711,798	3,034,842	2,437,020
14-Mar	2,701,850	3,018,688	2,431,838
13-Mar	2,691,762	3,002,317	2,426,565
12-Mar	2,681,534	2,985,733	2,421,200
11-Mar	2,671,170	2,968,943	2,415,744
10-Mar	2,660,668	2,951,949	2,410,197
9-Mar	2,650,029	2,934,759	2,404,560
8-Mar	2,639,259	2,917,381	2,398,836
7-Mar	2,628,364	2,899,824	2,393,027
6-Mar	2,617,347	2,882,099	2,387,133
5-Mar	2,606,213	2,864,214	2,381,156
4-Mar	2,594,965	2,846,177	2,375,092
3-Mar	2,583,603	2,827,994	2,368,946
2-Mar	2,572,132	2,809,670	2,362,719
1-Mar	2,560,556	2,791,216	2,356,409
28-Feb	2,548,878	2,772,640	2,350,017
27-Feb	2,537,105	2,753,954	2,343,545
26-Feb	2,525,245	2,735,172	2,336,994
25-Feb	2,513,302	2,716,308	2,330,365
24-Feb	2,501,285	2,697,375	2,323,661
23-Feb	2,489,203	2,678,389	2,316,882
22-Feb	2,477,058	2,659,365	2,310,030
21-Feb	2,464,855	2,640,313	2,303,105
20-Feb	2,452,601	2,621,246	2,296,107
19-Feb	2,440,299	2,602,172	2,289,034
18-Feb	2,427,951	2,583,099	2,281,886
17-Feb	2,415,559	2,564,033	2,274,661
16-Feb	2,403,124	2,544,985	2,267,359
15-Feb	2,390,649	2,525,964	2,259,978
14-Feb	2,378,136	2,506,982	2,252,519
13-Feb	2,365,588	2,488,048	2,244,980
12-Feb	2,353,007	2,469,175	2,237,360
11-Feb	2,340,393	2,450,371	2,229,660
10-Feb	2,327,750	2,431,648	2,221,879
9-Feb	2,315,076	2,413,013	2,214,014
8-Feb	2,302,371	2,394,475	2,206,063
7-Feb	2,289,639	2,376,040	2,198,027
6-Feb	2,276,882	2,357,720	2,189,903
5-Feb	2,264,101	2,339,526	2,181,690
4-Feb	2,251,303	2,321,470	2,173,390
3-Feb	2,238,492	2,303,568	2,165,004
2-Feb	2,225,671	2,285,830	2,156,532
1-Feb	2,212,843	2,268,262	2,147,972
31-Jan	2,200,007	2,250,867	2,139,320
30-Jan	2,187,162	2,233,648	2,130,573
29-Jan	2,174,305	2,216,605	2,121,724
28-Jan	2,161,436	2,199,738	2,112,767
27-Jan	2,148,553	2,183,048	2,103,693
26-Jan	2,135,649	2,166,528	2,094,494
25-Jan	2,122,717	2,150,173	2,085,157
24-Jan	2,109,756	2,133,980	2,075,675
23-Jan	2,096,764	2,117,948	2,066,040
22-Jan	2,083,743	2,102,079	2,056,245
21-Jan	2,070,697	2,086,382	2,046,287
20-Jan	2,057,632	2,070,865	2,036,165
19-Jan	2,044,552	2,055,531	2,025,877
18-Jan	2,031,459	2,040,379	2,015,421
17-Jan	2,018,358	2,025,409	2,004,798
16-Jan	2,005,254	2,010,617	1,994,014
15-Jan	1,992,158	1,996,001	1,983,066
14-Jan	1,979,015	1,981,563	1,971,873
13-Jan	1,965,752	1,967,303	1,960,341
12-Jan	1,952,373	1,953,226	1,948,445
11-Jan	1,938,911	1,939,332	1,936,196
10-Jan	1,925,406	1,925,621	1,923,631
9-Jan	1,911,950	1,912,088	1,910,851
8-Jan	1,898,633	1,898,727	1,897,977
7-Jan	1,885,472	1,885,535	1,885,085
6-Jan	1,872,468	1,872,509	1,872,228
5-Jan	1,859,621	1,859,648	1,859,458
4-Jan	1,846,934	1,846,949	1,846,819
3-Jan	1,834,400	1,834,408	1,834,325
2-Jan	1,822,014	1,822,018	1,821,969
1-Jan	1,809,769	1,809,771	1,809,745
31-Dec	1,797,666	1,797,666	1,797,655
30-Dec	1,785,701	1,785,701	1,785,697
29-Dec	1,773,872	1,773,872	1,773,872
28-Dec	1,762,177	1,762,177	1,762,177
27-Dec	1,750,612	1,750,612	1,750,612
26-Dec	1,739,167	1,739,167	1,739,167
25-Dec	1,727,836	1,727,836	1,727,836
24-Dec	1,716,612	1,716,612	1,716,612
23-Dec	1,705,483	1,705,483	1,705,483
22-Dec	1,694,440	1,694,440	1,694,440
21-Dec	1,683,470	1,683,470	1,683,470
20-Dec	1,672,563	1,672,563	1,672,563
19-Dec	1,661,707	1,661,707	1,661,707
18-Dec	1,661,707	1,661,707	1,661,707
17-Dec	1,650,894	1,650,894	1,650,894
16-Dec	1,650,894	1,650,894	1,650,894
15-Dec	1,640,107	1,640,107	1,640,107
14-Dec	1,640,107	1,640,107	1,640,107
13-Dec	1,629,349	1,629,349	1,629,349
12-Dec	1,629,349	1,629,349	1,629,349
11-Dec	1,618,618	1,618,618	1,618,618
10-Dec	1,618,618	1,618,618	1,618,618
9-Dec	1,607,909	1,607,909	1,607,909
8-Dec	1,597,222	1,597,222	1,597,222
7-Dec	1,586,554	1,586,554	1,586,554
6-Dec	1,575,909	1,575,909	1,575,909
5-Dec	1,565,287	1,565,287	1,565,287
4-Dec	1,554,692	1,554,692	1,554,692
3-Dec	1,544,130	1,544,130	1,544,130
2-Dec	1,533,603	1,533,603	1,533,603
1-Dec	1,523,118	1,523,118	1,523,118

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Release date

December 2020

More information

Region

Worldwide

Survey time period

as of December 17, 2020

Supplementary notes

*Current projection: Mandates are re-imposed for six weeks whenever daily deaths reach eight per million.
Mandates easing: Continued easing of social distancing mandates, and mandates are not re-imposed.
Universal masks: 95% mask usage in every location, with mandates re-imposed for six weeks if daily deaths reach eight per million.

Statista's COVID-19 content is compiled from various sources. Although all of these sources are reliable, this may result in discrepancies in figures among different statistics, graphs, and charts.

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