National NCREIF Property Index returns in the U.S. 2007-2024

In 2023, the return of the national NCREIF Property Index in the United States declined for the first time since 2009. The annualized total return of the index plummeted in 2023, followed by a slight increase in 2024. Just three years ago, in 2021, the rate of return of the index hit 17.7 percent. The NCREIF Property Index reflects the change in prices of commercial real estate for investment purposes in the United States.

Property types with the highest cap rates

Cap rates, which measure the expected return rate of a real estate asset, were the highest for retail properties in 2023. While a higher cap rate indicates a higher rate of return, it is also associated with higher risk: The multifamily sector, which has enjoyed steady and robust growth in recent years, had the lowest cap rate of all commercial property types. 

Commercial property area with the best development prospects

In 2025, the real estate development opportunities for single-family housing were deemed to be the best when compared with other types of commercial property. Industrial real estate includes warehouses, factories, and big box distribution centers.