Forecast impact of COVID-19 on real GDP growth in Kenya 2020-2023

By 2022, Kenya’s Gross Domestic Product is forecast to increase by 4.7 percent. According to the source’s estimates, the country recorded economic growth of five percent in 2021, recovering from a 0.3 percent contraction in 2020, as an effect of the coronavirus pandemic. The rebound has been attributed to household income and job growth, as well as to the COVID-19 vaccination campaign. Roughly 30 percent of the adult population has been fully vaccinated against the disease in Kenya so far.

Recovery through key sectors

The strongest impact of the coronavirus crisis on the Kenyan economy was felt in the second quarter of 2020. By then, the country’s GDP decreased by 5.5 percent, the first negative growth in recent years. As of the third quarter of 2021, Kenya already registered an improved economic performance, with the quarterly GDP growth rate measured at 9.9 percent. The educational sector pushed the result, with an expansion of 65 percent. Mining and quarrying, and accommodation and food services followed, each with a 25 percent growth rate.

An optimistic economic forecast in East Africa

East Africa's economic growth might reach nearly five percent in 2022, according to estimates. This would represent a strong recovery from 2020, when the region’s economy expanded by only 0.4 percent, due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Cumulatively, more than 1.34 million people in East Africa have been infected by the disease. Although most of the countries in the region have already launched a vaccination campaign, the number of vaccine doses administered per 100 people is still low.