Changes in trade flows and global supply chains following the COVID-19 pandemic 2020

According to the source, the relocation of some production of semi-finished and finished products from China will result in losses to the Chinese economy in terms of lower value-added generated. Depending on the scenario, the loss of value-added in the Chinese economy could range from 22.4 billion U.S. dollars up to 172 billion U.S. dollars per year after the adjustment period. Through a system of global supply chains, other countries in the world, such as the EU, could gain little from relocating within Asia. Imports of semi-finished or finished products originating in countries in South-East Asia, India, and Taiwan also include the added value from EU countries.
The EU-14** would benefit most from relocation if part of China's supplies of semi-finished and finished goods were replaced by domestic production - scenarios S2 and S4. EU-14 countries could also benefit from relocation even if Chinese manufacturing is not shifted to their economies (scenarios S1 and S3). In particular, when part of the supply from China would be replaced by production from the six new Member States. Due to the strong ties with the EU-13, Germany and Austria could benefit most in relative terms. On the other hand, EU-13 countries** could benefit most from Chinese relocation productions in scenario S3 and S4. In absolute terms, Poland could benefit most.