Belgium: coronavirus excess deaths Brussels 2020

The death toll in the Brussels-Capital Region during the coronavirus pandemic was much higher than originally anticipated. This shows when comparing the known deaths during this period with predictions based on the number of deaths that occurred in the last five years. According to this forecast, it was expected that 200 deaths would occur in the Brussels-Capital Region during the week covering April 6 to April 12, 2020. In reality, however, deaths amounted to 558, more than twice the number of expected deaths. Indeed, fatalities started to exceed the expected number of deaths in early March. While not all deaths are due to the coronavirus, the excess figures do show a potential impact COVID-19 on mortality rates in Belgium.

Observed and expected weekly death tolls in the Brussels-Capital Region (Belgium) from February to April 2020

Characteristic	Observed mortality	Expected mortality*
13 April - 19 April**	404	198
6 April - 12 April	558	200
30 March - 5 April	518	203
23 March - 29 March	354	205
16 March - 22 March	277	206
9 March - 15 March	226	208
2 March - 8 March	206	210
24 February - 1 March	215	211

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Release date

April 2020

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Region

Belgium

Survey time period

February 24 to April 19, 2020

Supplementary notes

* Expected mortality is a metric that came from the Be-MOMO model, otherwise known as the Belgium Mortality Monitor. This model predicts all-cause mortality over an extended period of time, looking at the normal/average mortality levels. This is then used for the calculation of the excess number of deaths (observed minus expected).

** Data for week 16 is preliminary.

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