Russia: COVID-19 influenced banking industry capital 2020-2021

According to experts, the total capital of the Russian banking system was estimated to mark below the 2019 levels during 2020-2021 years only under a severe scenario. The severe scenario implied that the critical state of the crisis caused by coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and sinking oil prices would last till the end of 2020 and have a negative effect on the economy of the country throughout 2021.

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Estimated total capital of Russian banking system for 2020 and 2021 in view of coronavirus (COVID-19), by stress scenario* (in trillion Russian rubles)

Characteristic	Total capital in trillion Russian rubles
2019 data	11.7
Moderate	12.2
Negative	11.7
Severe	10.8

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Release date

March 2020

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Region

Russia

Survey time period

March 2020

Supplementary notes

* According to the source, the severe scenario estimates that the critical phase of the crisis to last through the whole 2020, with the negative trend continuing until the end of 2021. Under such setting, the losses of the banking sector can be comparable to that of 2008.

The negative scenario implies that the critical phase of the crisis will end after the first half of 2020, with the negative trend continuing for another year,

The moderate scenario will not lead to losses in the banking sector, but it will still require significant efforts from the players to maintain the quality of the portfolios. According to this scenario, the critical phase of the crisis and the negative manifestations will affect only 2020.

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