Revenue/loss of Russian banks after COVID-19 2020-2021

According to experts, the Russian banking system would record revenues in 2020 and 2021 only if the critical state of the crisis caused by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and sinking oil prices had its negative effect only during 2020. In less optimistic cases, the banking industry was expected to incur losses over the indicated period.

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Estimated revenue/loss of the Russian banking system in view of the coronavirus (COVID-19) in 2020 and 2021, by stress scenario* (in trillion Russian rubles)

Characteristic	Revenue/loss in trillion Russian rubles
2019 data	1.95
Severe	-0.87
Negative	-0.2
Moderate	0.71

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Release date

March 2020

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Region

Russia

Survey time period

March 2020

Supplementary notes

* According to the source, the severe scenario estimates that the critical phase of the crisis to last through the whole 2020, with the negative trend continuing until the end of 2021. Under such setting, the losses of the banking sector can be comparable to that of 2008.

The negative scenario implies that the critical phase of the crisis will end after the first half of 2020, with the negative trend continuing for another year,

The moderate scenario will not lead to losses in the banking sector, but it will still require significant efforts from the players to maintain the quality of the portfolios. According to this scenario, the critical phase of the crisis and the negative manifestations will affect only 2020.

The source specified that the revenues or losses are before taxes.

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