Coronavirus impact on the GDP growth in Poland 2020, by scenario

According to the source, in the baseline scenario, the coronavirus epidemic lowers Poland's GDP growth by 0.4 percentage points in 2020. In this scenario, the most important are disruptions in supply chains, which lower GDP growth by 0.20 percentage points. In the pessimistic scenario, the coronavirus epidemic lowers Poland's GDP growth by 1.3 percentage points in 2020. In this scenario, the problems in the internal market, such as a drop in domestic demand, are estimated to lower GDP growth by 0.57 points. The implementation of the pessimistic scenario would mean that Poland's economic growth in 2020 would decrease from 3.7 percent previously forecast to around 2.0 percent. It is worth to notice that one of the biggest banks in Poland - mBank, estimated that GDP will reach 1.6 percent in 2020. The key assumption in both situations was that the epidemic is a temporary phenomenon, i.e., it would last for a maximum of several weeks, after which the economy would gradually recover.