The 2020 recession did not follow the trend of previous recessions in the United States because only six months elapsed between the yield curve inversion and the 2020 recession. Over the last five decades, 12 months, on average, has elapsed between the initial yield curve inversion and the beginning of a recession in the United States. For instance, the yield curve inverted initially in January 2006, which was 22 months before the start of the 2008 recession. A yield curve inversion refers to the event where short-term Treasury bonds, such as one or three month bonds, have higher yields than longer term bonds, such as three or five year bonds. This is unusual, because long-term investments typically have higher yields than short-term ones in order to reward investors for taking on the extra risk of longer term investments. Monthly updates on the Treasury yield curve can be seen here.
Number of months between yield curve inversion and start of recession 1978-2022
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Natixis Investment Managers. (April 20, 2022). Number of months between yield curve inversion and start of recession 1978-2022 [Graph]. In Statista. Retrieved August 25, 2024, from https://www.statista.com/statistics/1087216/time-gap-between-yield-curve-inversion-and-recession/
Natixis Investment Managers. "Number of months between yield curve inversion and start of recession 1978-2022." Chart. April 20, 2022. Statista. Accessed August 25, 2024. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1087216/time-gap-between-yield-curve-inversion-and-recession/
Natixis Investment Managers. (2022). Number of months between yield curve inversion and start of recession 1978-2022. Statista. Statista Inc.. Accessed: August 25, 2024. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1087216/time-gap-between-yield-curve-inversion-and-recession/
Natixis Investment Managers. "Number of Months between Yield Curve Inversion and Start of Recession 1978-2022." Statista, Statista Inc., 20 Apr 2022, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1087216/time-gap-between-yield-curve-inversion-and-recession/
Natixis Investment Managers, Number of months between yield curve inversion and start of recession 1978-2022 Statista, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1087216/time-gap-between-yield-curve-inversion-and-recession/ (last visited August 25, 2024)
Number of months between yield curve inversion and start of recession 1978-2022 [Graph], Natixis Investment Managers, April 20, 2022. [Online]. Available: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1087216/time-gap-between-yield-curve-inversion-and-recession/