The annual consumption of primary energy in Russia was forecast to increase between 2019 and 2030 under the New Momentum scenario, but decrease from 2030 to 2050. To compare, under the Accelerated and Net Zero scenarios, the consumption would decrease continuously between 2025 and 2050. The Net Zero scenario forecasts that Russia would consume over 26 exajoules of primary energy in 2050, four exajoules less than in 2019.
Consumption of primary energy in Russia in 2019 with a forecast until 2050, by scenario
(in exajoules)
Characteristic
Accelerated
Net Zero
New Momentum
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*Forecast. The scenarios were defined as follows:
"The scenarios were largely prepared before the outbreak of military action in Ukraine and do not include any analysis of its possible implications for economic growth and global energy markets.
The scenarios consider carbon emissions from energy production and use, most non-energy related industrial processes, and natural gas flaring plus methane emissions from the production, transmission and distribution of fossil fuels.
Accelerated and Net Zero explore how different elements of the energy system might change in order to achieve a substantial reduction in carbon emissions. They are conditioned on the assumption that there is a significant tightening of climate policies leading to a pronounced and sustained fall in COâ‚‚-
equivalent (COâ‚‚e) emissions. The fall in emissions in Net Zero is aided by a shift in societal behavior and preferences which further supports gains in energy efficiency and the adoption of low-carbon energy sources.
New Momentum is designed to capture the broad trajectory along which the global energy system is currently progressing. It places weight both on the marked increase in global ambition for decarbonization seen in recent years and the likelihood that those aims and ambitions will be achieved, and on the manner and speed of progress seen over the recent past.
COâ‚‚e emissions in all three scenarios increase above pre-Covid levels. Emissions in Accelerated and Net Zero peak in the early 2020s and by 2050 are around 75% and 95% below 2019 levels respectively. COâ‚‚e emissions in New Momentum peak in the late 2020s and by 2050 are around 20% below 2019 levels."
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BP. (January 30, 2023). Consumption of primary energy in Russia in 2019 with a forecast until 2050, by scenario (in exajoules) [Graph]. In Statista. Retrieved August 24, 2024, from https://www.statista.com/statistics/1079599/russia-energy-consumption-forecast-by-scenario/
BP. "Consumption of primary energy in Russia in 2019 with a forecast until 2050, by scenario (in exajoules)." Chart. January 30, 2023. Statista. Accessed August 24, 2024. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1079599/russia-energy-consumption-forecast-by-scenario/
BP. (2023). Consumption of primary energy in Russia in 2019 with a forecast until 2050, by scenario (in exajoules). Statista. Statista Inc.. Accessed: August 24, 2024. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1079599/russia-energy-consumption-forecast-by-scenario/
BP. "Consumption of Primary Energy in Russia in 2019 with a Forecast until 2050, by Scenario (in Exajoules)." Statista, Statista Inc., 30 Jan 2023, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1079599/russia-energy-consumption-forecast-by-scenario/
BP, Consumption of primary energy in Russia in 2019 with a forecast until 2050, by scenario (in exajoules) Statista, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1079599/russia-energy-consumption-forecast-by-scenario/ (last visited August 24, 2024)
Consumption of primary energy in Russia in 2019 with a forecast until 2050, by scenario (in exajoules) [Graph], BP, January 30, 2023. [Online]. Available: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1079599/russia-energy-consumption-forecast-by-scenario/