Although much is said about the momentum a presidential candidate can gain from winning the Iowa and New Hampshire presidential primaries, in less than a quarter of cases between 1976 and 2016 has the winner gone on to beat the incumbent and become the new president of the United States. Over this time, New Hampshire has been a better indicator of success than Iowa, selecting the new U.S. president 25 percent of the time for Republican candidates and 22.2 percent of the time for the Democrats. This compares to 12.5 percent and 11.1 percent respectively for Iowa.
These calculations do not include those primaries where an incumbent president ran unopposed.
Success rate of winners of the Iowa and New Hampshire presidential primaries in presidential elections in the United States between 1976 and 2016, by party
Characteristic
Chosen candidate became the new president
Chosen candidate became the party nominee but lost the presidential election
Percentages calculated by Statista using values provided by the sources.
2016 Iowa values available here, and New Hampshire values here.
Calculations do not include years where an incumbent president ran unopposed in their party primary. This means that, even though he was the incumbent president at the time, Jimmy Carter's election in the 1980 Democratic Party primaries is included as he faced opposition.
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NPR. (November 30, 2016). Success rate of winners of the Iowa and New Hampshire presidential primaries in presidential elections in the United States between 1976 and 2016, by party [Graph]. In Statista. Retrieved November 23, 2024, from https://www.statista.com/statistics/1077419/success-rate-iowa-new-hampshire-presidential-primary-winners/
NPR. "Success rate of winners of the Iowa and New Hampshire presidential primaries in presidential elections in the United States between 1976 and 2016, by party." Chart. November 30, 2016. Statista. Accessed November 23, 2024. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1077419/success-rate-iowa-new-hampshire-presidential-primary-winners/
NPR. (2016). Success rate of winners of the Iowa and New Hampshire presidential primaries in presidential elections in the United States between 1976 and 2016, by party. Statista. Statista Inc.. Accessed: November 23, 2024. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1077419/success-rate-iowa-new-hampshire-presidential-primary-winners/
NPR. "Success Rate of Winners of The Iowa and New Hampshire Presidential Primaries in Presidential Elections in The United States between 1976 and 2016, by Party." Statista, Statista Inc., 30 Nov 2016, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1077419/success-rate-iowa-new-hampshire-presidential-primary-winners/
NPR, Success rate of winners of the Iowa and New Hampshire presidential primaries in presidential elections in the United States between 1976 and 2016, by party Statista, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1077419/success-rate-iowa-new-hampshire-presidential-primary-winners/ (last visited November 23, 2024)
Success rate of winners of the Iowa and New Hampshire presidential primaries in presidential elections in the United States between 1976 and 2016, by party [Graph], NPR, November 30, 2016. [Online]. Available: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1077419/success-rate-iowa-new-hampshire-presidential-primary-winners/
