U.S. government bonds: 10-2-year yield spread 2024

The spread between 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury bond yields reached a negative value of -0.38 percent in May 2024.

The 10-year minus 2-year Treasury bond spread is generally considered to be an advance warning of severe weakness in the stock market. Negative spreads occurred prior to the recession of the early 1990s, the tech-bubble crash in 2000-2001, and the financial crisis of 2007-2008.

Monthly ten-year government bond yield minus two-year government bond yield spread in the United States from 2006 to May 2024

Characteristic	Yield spread
May-24	-0.38%
Apr-24	-0.33%
Mar-24	-0.38%
Feb-24	-0.33%
Jan-24	-0.26%
Dec-23	-0.44%
Nov-23	-0.38%
Oct-23	-0.27%
Sep-23	-0.64%
Aug-23	-0.73%
Jul-23	-0.93%
Jun-23	-0.89%
May-23	-0.56%
Apr-23	-0.56%
Mar-23	-0.64%
Feb-23	-0.78%
Jan-23	-0.68%
Dec-22	-0.67%
Nov-22	-0.61%
Oct-22	-0.4%
Sep-22	-0.34%
Aug-22	-0.35%
Jul-22	-0.14%
Jun-22	0.14%
May-22	0.28%
Apr-22	0.21%
Mar-22	0.22%
Feb-22	0.49%
Jan-22	0.78%
Dec-21	0.78%
Nov-21	1.05%
Oct-21	1.19%
Sep-21	1.13%
Aug-21	1.06%
Jul-21	1.1%
Jun-21	1.32%
May-21	1.47%
Apr-21	1.47%
Mar-21	1.46%
Feb-21	1.14%
Jan-21	0.95%
Dec-20	0.79%
Nov-20	0.7%
Oct-20	0.64%
Sep-20	0.55%
Aug-20	0.51%
Jul-20	0.47%
Jun-20	0.55%
May-20	0.5%
Apr-20	0.44%
Mar-20	0.42%
Feb-20	0.17%
Jan-20	0.24%
Dec-19	0.25%
Nov-19	0.2%
Oct-19	0.16%
Sep-19	0.05%
Aug-19	0.06%
Jul-19	0.22%
Jun-19	0.26%
May-19	0.19%
Apr-19	0.19%
Mar-19	0.16%
Feb-19	0.18%
Jan-19	0.17%
Dec-18	0.15%
Nov-18	0.26%
Oct-18	0.29%
Sep-18	0.23%
Aug-18	0.25%
Jul-18	0.28%
Jun-18	0.38%
May-18	0.47%
Apr-18	0.49%
Mar-18	0.56%
Feb-18	0.68%
Jan-18	0.55%
Dec-17	0.56%
Nov-17	0.65%
Oct-17	0.81%
Sep-17	0.82%
Aug-17	0.87%
Jul-17	0.95%
Jun-17	0.85%
May-17	1%
Apr-17	1.06%
Mar-17	1.17%
Feb-17	1.22%
Jan-17	1.22%
Dec-16	1.29%
Nov-16	1.16%
Oct-16	0.92%
Sep-16	0.86%
Aug-16	0.82%
Jul-16	0.83%
Jun-16	0.91%
May-16	0.99%
Apr-16	1.04%
Mar-16	1.01%
Feb-16	1.05%
Jan-16	1.19%
Dec-15	1.26%
Nov-15	1.38%
Oct-15	1.43%
Sep-15	1.46%
Aug-15	1.47%
Jul-15	1.65%
Jun-15	1.67%
May-15	1.59%
Apr-15	1.4%
Mar-15	1.4%
Feb-15	1.36%
Jan-15	1.33%
Dec-14	1.57%
Nov-14	1.8%
Oct-14	1.85%
Sep-14	1.96%
Aug-14	1.95%
Jul-14	2.03%
Jun-14	2.15%
May-14	2.17%
Apr-14	2.29%
Mar-14	2.32%
Feb-14	2.38%
Jan-14	2.47%
Dec-13	2.56%
Nov-13	2.42%
Oct-13	2.28%
Sep-13	2.41%
Aug-13	2.38%
Jul-13	2.24%
Jun-13	1.97%
May-13	1.68%
Apr-13	1.53%
Mar-13	1.7%
Feb-13	1.71%
Jan-13	1.64%
Dec-12	1.46%
Nov-12	1.38%
Oct-12	1.47%
Sep-12	1.46%
Aug-12	1.41%
Jul-12	1.28%
Jun-12	1.33%
May-12	1.51%
Apr-12	1.76%
Mar-12	1.83%
Feb-12	1.69%
Jan-12	1.73%
Dec-11	1.72%
Nov-11	1.76%
Oct-11	1.87%
Sep-11	1.77%
Aug-11	2.07%
Jul-11	2.59%
Jun-11	2.59%
May-11	2.61%
Apr-11	2.73%
Mar-11	2.71%
Feb-11	2.81%
Jan-11	2.78%
Dec-10	2.67%
Nov-10	2.31%
Oct-10	2.16%
Sep-10	2.17%
Aug-10	2.18%
Jul-10	2.39%
Jun-10	2.48%
May-10	2.59%
Apr-10	2.79%
Mar-10	2.77%
Feb-10	2.83%
Jan-10	2.8%
Dec-09	2.72%
Nov-09	2.6%
Oct-09	2.44%
Sep-09	2.44%
Aug-09	2.47%
Jul-09	2.54%
Jun-09	2.54%
May-09	2.36%
Apr-09	2%
Mar-09	1.89%
Feb-09	1.89%
Jan-09	1.71%
Dec-08	1.6%
Nov-08	2.32%
Oct-08	2.2%
Sep-08	1.61%
Aug-08	1.47%
Jul-08	1.44%
Jun-08	1.33%
May-08	1.43%
Apr-08	1.63%
Mar-08	1.89%
Feb-08	1.77%
Jan-08	1.26%
Dec-07	0.98%
Nov-07	0.81%
Oct-07	0.56%
Sep-07	0.51%
Aug-07	0.36%
Jul-07	0.18%
Jun-07	0.12%
May-07	-0.02%
Apr-07	0.02%
Mar-07	-0.01%
Feb-07	-0.13%
Jan-07	-0.12%
Dec-06	-0.11%
Nov-06	-0.14%
Oct-06	-0.07%
Sep-06	-0.05%
Aug-06	-0.02%
Jul-06	-0.03%
Jun-06	-0.01%
May-06	0.14%
Apr-06	0.1%
Mar-06	-0.01%
Feb-06	-0.1%
Jan-06	0.02%

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Release date

June 2024

More information

Region

Worldwide, United States

Survey time period

2006 to May 2024

Supplementary notes

Values are calculated using the treasury constant maturity. Constant maturity is an adjustment for equivalent maturity used by the Federal Reserve Board to calculate an index based on the average yield of various Treasury securities maturing at different periods - in this case two and ten years.

Values not seasonally adjusted.

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