Commodities

The nominal value in the Commodities market is projected to reach US$2.63tn in 2024.
It is expected to show an annual growth rate (CAGR 2024-2029) of 7.07% resulting in a projected total amount of US$3.70tn by 2029.
The average price per contract in the Commodities market amounts to US$0.01 in 2024.
From a global comparison perspective it is shown that the highest nominal value is reached United States (US$53.69tn in 2024).
In the Commodities market, the number of contracts is expected to amount to 504.70m by 2029.

Definition:

The commodities market refers to derivatives of commodities. These include financial vehicles such as options and futures. Derivatives allow investors to profit from a commodity’s value development without owning the physical commodity (e.g. instead of owning a unit of Gold, an investor could own a derivative of Gold). Therefore, physical commodities are out of scope in this analysis.

Structure:

The commodities market comprises derivatives of precious metals, industrial metals, energy products, agricultural products & the Emission Trade System. The segments of precious metals, industrial metals, energy products, and agricultural products are also providing price data of popular specific derivatives. The segment data of the Emission Trade System (ETS) is only provided for countries where an ETS is in place (therefore the number of countries where data is shown is reduced in comparison to other segments).

Additional information:

The market contains the following KPIs: annual notional value, the number of traded contracts, the open interest (number of outstanding contracts at the end of a year) as well as the average notional value per contract. Furthermore, the share of futures and options is provided for these KPIs to display even more insights into this market.

Options & Futures
Precious Metal Derivatives
Industry Metal Derivatives
Energy Product Derivatives
Agricultural Product Derivatives
Emission Trading System

Physical commodities
Other Derivative types
other Commodity Types

The Commodities market in Eastern Europe is experiencing a notable shift in dynamics, reflecting the evolving economic landscape of the region. Customer preferences in the Eastern European Commodities market are increasingly leaning towards more diverse investment options, driven by a growing interest in risk management and portfolio diversification.

Investors are showing a preference for Commodities as a way to hedge against inflation and geopolitical uncertainties, aligning with global trends in the financial markets. Trends in the Eastern European Commodities market indicate a rising demand for energy-related derivatives, especially in countries rich in natural resources like oil and gas. This trend is influenced by both local production capabilities and external factors such as global supply and demand dynamics.

Additionally, there is a noticeable increase in trading volumes for agricultural Commodities, reflecting the importance of the agricultural sector in the region's economy. Local special circumstances in Eastern Europe, such as political stability and regulatory frameworks, play a significant role in shaping the Commodities market. Countries with well-established financial markets and clear regulations tend to attract more foreign investment, leading to increased liquidity and market efficiency.

On the other hand, regions facing political uncertainties may experience higher volatility and risk premiums in their Commodities market. Underlying macroeconomic factors, including GDP growth, inflation rates, and exchange rate movements, also impact the Eastern European Commodities market. Economic growth in the region drives demand for Commodities as inputs for various industries, while inflation rates influence investors' decisions to allocate their assets in Commodities as a hedge against rising prices.

Exchange rate fluctuations can create arbitrage opportunities in the market, attracting both local and foreign investors.

Data coverage:

Figures are based on commodity derivatives, their notional value, the number of contracts traded, the open interest (outstanding contracts at the end of a year), and the average value of a contract.

Modeling approach / Market size:

Market sizes are determined by a Bottom-Up approach, based on a specific rationale for each market segment. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use market research & analysis, and data of World Bank, as well as the World Federation of Exchanges. Furthermore, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations and national data bureaus such as GDP, wealth per capita, and the online banking penetration rate. This data helps us to estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:

In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the particular market. In this market, we use the HOLT-damped Trend method to forecast future development. The main drivers are GDP per capita an the online banking penetration rate.

Additional Notes:

The market is updated twice per year in case market dynamics change.

This report presents a comprehensive analysis and additional information on the Financial market, in a PDF format.