Grocery Delivery - Pakistan | Statista Market Forecast

The projected Revenue in the Grocery Delivery market in Pakistan is estimated to reach US$165.40m in 2024.
This projection indicates an expected annual growth rate (CAGR 2024-2029) of 8.52%, resulting in a projected market volume of US$248.90m by 2029.
In Pakistan, the Retail Delivery market is projected to have a market volume of US$92.20m in 2024.
When compared globally, the highest revenue is expected to be generated China, with US$266.00bn in 2024.
The average revenue per user (ARPU) in the Grocery Delivery market in Pakistan is projected to amount to US$14.44 in 2024.
Additionally, the number of users in the Grocery Delivery market is expected to reach 17.9m users by 2029.
The user penetration in the Grocery Delivery market is anticipated to be at 4.7% in 2024.
The demand for online grocery delivery services in Pakistan has surged due to the convenience and safety it offers amidst the COVID-19 pandemic.

Definition:

The Grocery Delivery market consists of food and non-food products that people regularly buy from a grocery store, including food and beverages, pet food, household cleaning products, personal care products, and other household consumables. Grocery delivery can be purchased through several different sales channels such as Omnichannel, Quick Commerce, or directly from the store.

Structure:

Grocery Delivery contains three markets: Retail Delivery, Quick Commerce, and Meal Kit Delivery. Retail Delivery includes delivery of these products directly by supermarkets, brick-and-mortar shops, or grocery stores. The order is placed through an online shop run by the retailer (e.g. Walmart+, Amazon Fresh). Quick Commerce focuses on online delivery services that provide customers with last-mile delivery (Instacart), or operate ghost stores where product selection is limited but delivery time is faster (e.g. Gorillas, Getir, and Glovo). In this case, the platform (e.g. Gorillas) handles the delivery process. This also includes grocery delivery platforms where delivery is advertised under 3 hours, although, most players aim to deliver in minutes. Finally, Meal Kit Delivery encompasses the delivery of a recipe box where fresh ingredients are delivered to be prepared. This service is usually offered as a subscription plan (e.g. HelloFresh).

Additional Information:

Revenue figures refer to Gross Merchandise Value (GMV). User and revenue figures represent B2C services.

Fresh food & Beverages, personal care, or household items ordered online are directly delivered to the consumer, no matter if ordered via a platform (e.g., Instacart) or a retailer website (e.g., Walmart)
Online Grocery orders and delivery are both carried out by a retailer (e.g., Walmart)
Online orders that are picked up in the supermarket (e.g., Instacart) or operating ghost warehouses and delivery logistics (e.g., Flink)
Online orders of recipe boxes where the ingredients are already preportioned (e.g., HelloFresh)

Phone orders
Deliveries of prepared meals for direct consumption (e.g. Meal Delivery)

The demand for online grocery delivery has been on the rise in Pakistan, driven by a number of factors.

Customer preferences: One of the main reasons for the growth of online grocery delivery in Pakistan is the convenience it offers to customers. With busy work schedules and traffic congestion in major cities, many people prefer to order groceries online and have them delivered to their doorstep. Additionally, the COVID-19 pandemic has further accelerated the shift towards online shopping as people try to avoid crowded places.

Trends in the market: The online grocery delivery market in Pakistan is still relatively new, but it is growing rapidly. A number of local and international players have entered the market in recent years, offering a range of products and services. Some of the key trends in the market include the use of mobile apps for ordering and delivery, the expansion of product offerings beyond just groceries, and the adoption of technology to improve the customer experience.

Local special circumstances: Pakistan has a large and growing population, with a significant proportion of the population living in urban areas. This has created a large market for online grocery delivery services, particularly in major cities such as Karachi, Lahore, and Islamabad. However, there are also challenges that companies face in operating in Pakistan, including infrastructure issues and regulatory hurdles.

Underlying macroeconomic factors: Pakistan's economy has been growing in recent years, albeit at a relatively slow pace. The country has a large and young population, which provides a potential market for online grocery delivery services. However, income levels in Pakistan are relatively low, which means that companies need to offer affordable products and services in order to be successful. Additionally, the country's political and economic instability can pose challenges for businesses operating in the market.

Data coverage:

The data encompasses B2C enterprises. Figures are based on Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) and represent what consumers pay for these products and services. The user metrics show the number of customers who have made at least one online purchase within the past 12 months.

Modeling approach / Market size:

Market sizes are determined through a bottom-up approach, building on predefined factors for each market. As a basis for evaluating markets, we use annual financial reports of the market-leading companies, third-party studies and reports, as well as survey results from our primary research (e.g., the Statista Global Consumer Survey). In addition, we use relevant key market indicators and data from country-specific associations, such as GDP, GDP per capita, and internet connection speed. This data helps us estimate the market size for each country individually.

Forecasts:

In our forecasts, we apply diverse forecasting techniques. The selection of forecasting techniques is based on the behavior of the relevant market. For example, the S-curve function and exponential trend smoothing. The main drivers are internet users, urban population, usage of key players, and attitudes toward online services.

Additional notes:

The market is updated twice a year in case market dynamics change. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war are considered at a country-specific level. GCS data is reweighted for representativeness.

This report presents a comprehensive analysis and additional information on the Ecommerce market, in a PDF format.