Can Apple Revitalize Its Stagnant iPad Business?

Three months after the launch of Vision Pro, Apple’s first entirely new product in years, the world’s popular consumer tech company is about to unveil a couple of product updates at a virtual launch event today. The presentation titled “let loose” is widely expected to be centered around new iPad Pro and iPad Air models, with the Apple Pencil also likely to play a major role. That is, if Apple’s invite showing a hand that holds a stylus is any indication – and it usually is.

The always spinning Apple rumor mill suggests that the iPad Pro will get a new M3 chip, an OLED display and the long-awaited repositioning of its front-facing camera, which will make video calls on the device instantly more enjoyable. With the last iPad launch dating back to the M2 iPad Pro in late 2022, it has been the longest wait for a new iPad model since Apple released its first tablet in 2010, partially explaining why the category has been in a lull lately.

As our chart shows, iPad sales have declined for the past two years after the Covid-19 pandemic had briefly reignited growth in 2020 and 2021. In the first six months of Apple’s fiscal 2024, which ends in September, iPad sales dropped more than 20 percent compared to the previous year, a worrying trend that Apple will be looking to reverse with today’s new models.

When the iPad made its debut in 2010, it was supposed to be the next big thing. And for a while, it looked like it could deliver on that promise. The device got off to a great start and by its second year on the market, it already accounted for nearly 20 percent of Apple’s revenue. After peaking in 2013, iPad sales started to erode though, as the market matured and large-screen smartphones ate away at tablet demand. In the first six months of fiscal 2024, the iPad accounted for no more than 6 percent of Apple’s revenue. Once (briefly) the second most important driver of Apple’s sales, the company's tablet business is now its smallest reported segment.