Hajj Deaths: Tragedies In Mecca are Far From Rare

More than 1,300 people have died in this year’s Hajj pilgrimage amid an intense heatwave, according to Saudi authorities. Temperatures reached as high as 51.8 degrees Celsius (125 degrees Fahrenheit) in the holy city of Mecca this year.

The official Saudi Press Agency reported that 83 percent of those who died had not been registered to perform Hajj and had walked long distances under the sun without adequate shelter. Hajj permits are not only limited (partly as a measure to keep the pilgrims’ number to a safe level) but also expensive. According to a report by AFP, this has seen many turn towards other routes of participating in the Hajj without the correct visa, despite risking arrest and deportation.

The Hajj pilgrimage is determined by the Islamic calendar, which is 11 days shorter than the Gregorian calendar, and so it moves earlier each year. This year, the Hajj pilgrimage took place principally between June 14-19, meaning that in theory, the risk of such extreme temperatures should decrease in future years as the dates migrate from June to May.

But this relief will be short lived as, according to the analysts at Yale Climate Connections, in the years of 2045-2053 and 2079-86 Hajj is set to fall between August and October, when 'wet bulb' temperatures will peak. The wet bulb temperature is a measurement that looks at the combination of temperatures and humidity. When both are high, it becomes increasingly difficult for the human body to cool itself down as sweat evaporates more slowly. Twinned with this physical risk of the heat itself, the Yale writers explain, comes the increased likelihood of stampedes, as people tend to react differently under heat stress.

As the following chart shows, tragedies during the Hajj pilgrimage are far from rare. The deadliest in the past fifty years was in 2015, when a stampede killed a staggering 2,426 people. That same year, a further 111 pilgrims were killed when a crane collapsed at the Grand Mosque in the holy city of Mecca. Prior to that, the worst disaster to strike since 1975 occurred on July 2, 1990 when 1,426 people were killed in a stampede in an overcrowded tunnel.

The Kingdom had issued warnings in the run up to Hajj this year about the heat and had put in place several measures such as mist dispensers. However, the country still faces criticism for not taking enough precautions.