Exit Polls Suggest Major Trump Gains With Latinos

Exit polls suggest that support for Donald Trump rose majorly among the Hispanic population in the 2024 U.S. election compared to the last time the candidate ran for president in 2020. While Trump did not get elected for a second term four years ago, he is the projected winner of this year's contest.

Projected support for Trump among Hispanics surged by 13 percentage points to 45 percent, according to Edison Research exit polls. This was driven by Hispanic men, and to a smaller degree by Hispanic women, who voted for Trump in larger shares. While Hispanic eligible voters make up around 15 percent of the electorate, they still hold key positions in some states that can be a factor in tipping them blue or red, for example in Arizona or Pennsylvania via the Puerto Rican vote. Hispanic turnout, as well as Black turnout, was relatively lower in 2024 than in 2020, according to the exit polls, as the two groups made up just 11-12 percent of voters each. This is opposite the white vote rising 4 percentage points to 71 percent of voters despite whites making up a smaller share of eligible voters. Support among Black men for Trump, while low, also gained slightly, the numbers suggested. Support among whites fell, but they remained Trump's biggest supporters overall.

Support for Trump is also expected to have risen among younger voters, especially those under the age of 29. A projected 42 percent of this group has now voted for Trump - still fewer on the whole than in older cohorts between the ages of 30 and 64, where Trump had majority support. Among Americans 65 and older, Harris again showed a slight lead in the exit polls.