Has Obesity Peaked?

After decades of rising obesity rates in the United States, the country may have turned a corner in its fight against the condition that increases the risk of hypertension, type 2 diabetes and coronary heart disease. According to the latest results from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), the prevalence of obesity among U.S. adults aged 20 and older was 40.3 percent during the August 2021 – August 2023 survey period, down from 41.9 percent between 2017 and 2020, which marked the highest prevalence ever recorded.

According to historical data from the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics, adult obesity prevalence climbed from 13 percent in 1960-1962 to 23 percent between 1988 and 1994 and first reached 30 percent in the 1999-2000 wave of the national survey. Aside from two small dents, the prevalence of obesity has continued to climb from there, reaching 41.9 percent in the last pre-pandemic survey period. While the latest decline marks the first drop in obesity prevalence since 2011-2012, the NCHS notes that the changes in the prevalence of obesity and severe obesity between the two most recent survey cycles weren’t statistically significant, as the differences were within the standard error.

So while the decline in obesity rates could just be a statistical blip, it could also be the first sign of a meaningful trend. Some are even suggesting that the decline could be related to the rise of semaglutide drugs such as Ozempic – an antidiabetic medication developed for the treatment of type 2 diabetes but also highly effective for weight loss. These drugs mimic a hormone called GLP-1 that helps regulate blood sugar and reduce appetite, the latter in particular helping users to consume fewer calories and lose weight.