Trump Pulls Ahead in Battleground States

As of Oct. 29, 2024, polling averages aggregated by website RealClear Polling show that Republican candidate Donald Trump leads in most battleground states ahead of the U.S. presidential election in November. Democratic contender Kamala Harris led her opponent by 0.5 percentage points only in the state of Michigan most recently. Approximately one month ago, the website had seen Harris and Trump ahead in three battleground states each, while another one was rated as tied.

Right now, the biggest leads for Trump were reported from Georgia and Arizona with margins of 2.4 and 2.2 percentage points, respectively. Other leads - for example in Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania - were much smaller. Harris leading only in Michigan is the equivalent of 15 electoral votes while Trump would collect 78 in this scenario.

The source also calculates how many electoral votes in the 2024 election are expected to come from states usually voting Democratic or Republican and likely/leaning to vote Democratic or Republican. Here, Harris has 215 votes (including 76 likely/leaning ones), while Trump has 219 votes (126 likely/leaning). Harris would therefore have to carry slightly more of battleground votes to reach an electoral college majority, which in this calculation include an additional 10 from Minnesota and one from Nebraska's second district. However, Trump has more potential to lose votes now being attributed to him, but are only likely and not relatively sure to be in his favor. This includes 70 from Florida and Texas which are rated as leaning - the least sure category. Meanwhile, Harris only has 24 electoral college votes rated least sure, coming from Maine, Virginia, New Mexico and New Hamshire. Only 93 votes are considered quite safe for Trump, opposite 139 for Harris.