Who Is Ahead in the U.S. Presidential Race?

After his first debate against former President Donald Trump on June 27, President Biden's approval ratings took a hit and discussions about him being fit for office increased. This eventually led to Biden announcing he would step down from his reelection bid on July 21. Now, a Democratic president in 2024 doesn't look as far-fetched as it did some weeks ago. Recent polls suggest that Kamala Harris, who has yet to officially be nominated as a presidential candidate at the Democratic National Convention from August 19 to 22, might have a chance at beating Trump.

As data from RealClear Polling suggests, Trump still leads polls by 1.7 points on average when looking at the period between July 5 and July 25. Harris led in three out of the 15 polls analyzed. Eleven polls put Trump ahead by between one to seven points, while one poll showed a tie. The average, however, is slightly skewed due to two polls by Rasmussen Reports and Emerson putting Trump ahead by seven and six points, respectively. It's also relevant to note that the Emerson poll was conducted between July 7 and 8, two weeks before Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race. Looking at the figures for a Trump-Biden matchup in the Emerson results, the incumbent President was polling three points behind the former President.

Due to the electoral system in the U.S., the popular vote can only be seen as a rough estimate of the final result. The Electoral College aims for a proportionate representation of each state in the presidential election. It selects a group of electors "equal to the whole number of Senators and Representatives to which the State may be entitled in the Congress", according to Article II of the U.S. Constitution. These electors then unanimously vote for the winning ticket in the corresponding state.

Critics of this voting process have argued that this goes against the will of the voters. Under this system, every vote for the losing ticket essentially becomes a "lost vote", even though a handful of states allow "faithless electors" to go against the winning ticket in their state. According to Newsweek reporting, the 2020 election saw no faithless electors, while the 2016 race between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump had seven electors deviating from the winning ticket.