Who Will Be Dropping Out in 2nd Round of French Election?

On Sunday, France will head into the second round of its snap election after President Emmanuel Macron dissolved the current parliament due to the far-right Rassemblement National (RN), or National Rally, and French Future achieving a combined vote share of 31.8 percent in the European election. While RN managed to replicate their success in the first round of the legislative election with a result of 33.2 percent, their chances of achieving an absolute majority in the second round are reportedly slim.

This is due to the large number of qualified candidates from the Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) or New Popular Front, a leftist bloc consisting of a variety of socialist and center-left parties, and Macron's liberal coalition Ensemble expected to drop out in constituencies where another candidate not associated with right-wing parties might have a better shot at winning a seat.

According to reporting by Le Monde, this tactic will be employed by 132 members of the NFP, all of whom placed third in their respective districts, and 83 Ensemble candidates. The former will reduce their electable candidates by 28 percent, while the latter's candidate pool will shrink to 33 percent.

This scheme of blocking right-wing and far-right parties might prove successful, according to Euronews. A Harris Interactive survey for Challenges magazine suggests that due to these tactical withdrawals from a so-called triangulaire, a regular occurrence in French electoral politics, Marine Le Pen's RN will gain a maximum of 220 seats out of 289 seats needed for a total majority.

This doesn't preclude Le Pen's party from forming a government, though. In 2022, Macron also established a hung government with his coalition scoring 245 seats, deciding to cooperate with specific parties and blocs on specific issues. However, it might prove difficult for Le Pen to find allies further to the left, especially with the conservative Les Republicains projected to win 31 seats at best.

Adapted from the French original by Valentine Fourreau.