Majority of IS Attack Claims Now Outside Syria, Iraq

Terror group IS has claimed responsibility for the attack on a Moscow concert hall that killed more than 130 people Friday. It is therefore the deadliest attack in Europe ever claimed by the terror group. After the shooting that went on for almost one hour, the attackers set fire to the venue. Four men who are allegedly of Tadjik origin have already appeared in court and plead guilty to having been involved in the attack.

The IS has been known to carry out attacks on countries other than their original strongholds in Syria and Iraq as part of their extremist strategy. The UN recently reported that the group had been doing recruitment in Central Asia, using its Afghanistan branch Islamic State Khorasan Province - which is also now the one that has claimed Friday's attack.

Data by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy shows that attacks claimed by the IS have decreased. However, as its hold on Syria and Iraq diminished, the group is now claiming a majority of its attacks in other countries. In the past 12 months, it did so for 774 international attacks opposite 347 in Syria and Iraq. In between early 2019 and 2020, this has been the other way around, at 2,152 attacks in Syria and Iraq and 1,149 elsewhere.

Looking at just the last year, many of these attacks happened in West and Central Africa as well as Mozambique (claimed by groups there). The report states that the IS Khorasan branch actually claimed fewer attacks in the past 12 months than previously, being suppressed by the Taliban in Afghanistan. However, as the Taliban have not applied any such scrutiny to the planning of any potential international attacks by the group, the report actually rated an external attack by IS Khorasan the biggest global threat emanating from the militia as of March 20. At that time it was already known that IS-K had been planning such attacks. The U.S. had warmed about an imminent attack on a Moscow gathering on March 7.