Extreme Weather, Russia & Cyber Attacks Top Fears List

In the run up to the annual Munich Security Conference, a survey was carried out in 11 of the world’s major economies to capture a sense of different populations’ thoughts on security risks. Just some of the findings are illustrated below, where we have compiled the primary risk per country, according to an index formed on local perceptions.

As this chart shows, questions of extreme weather and climate change in general were of particular concern in several countries: Brazil, Italy, Canada and India. Brazil, which has observed 40+ temperatures in just the past months, saw its index score for extreme weather and forest fires climb by 9 points from one year prior. Two thirds of the country’s respondents said they thought this risk was imminent and one third respondents (34 percent) said they felt unprepared for it.

Cyber attacks too featured as the leading concern in multiple countries. This was the case in both China and the United States, although the index score was far higher in the latter. Yet, in China, only four percent of respondents said they felt unprepared for such attacks. The Asian nation also placed the U.S. among its top three perceived risks, ranking it third only after climate change, and up four places from the year before. In the U.S., political polarization came in second place, with the highest rank for the risk of the countries surveyed at 64 index points.

When it comes to the question of Russia, Japanese respondents were particularly wary, as reflected in the high 74 point score on the index. In the United Kingdom too, concerns over Russia were high as of November 2023, although fears have quelled somewhat since 2022, marked by a downturn of 11 points in the latest survey wave. In Japan, respondents were also the most concerned about the risk posed by China among the surveyed populations, with an index score of 73.

The highest score detailed in the report was for energy supply disruption in South Africa, receiving 90 index points out of 100. Three quarters of the respondents surveyed there said they thought this risk was imminent. Meanwhile, just under half (47 percent) said they felt unprepared for it. At the same time, South Africans remain worried about the risks of an economic or financial crisis. This risk is up two points from last year, while it is down in many other countries.

The Munich Security Conference will take place from February 16 to 18, 2024 at the Hotel Bayerischer Hof in Munich, Germany.