Who’s Predicted To Win Eurovision 2024?

The finals of the 68th Eurovision Song Contest will take place in Malmö, Sweden, on May 11. After two semi-final events this week, the number of competitors has dropped from 37 to 26, and as our chart shows, as of May 10, bookies have a clear favorite to win.

With a probability of 41 percent, Croatia’s Baby Lasagna is expected to take first place this year with his song "Rim Tim Tagi Dim." The forecast is based on an evaluation of the average odds of 17 betting portals analyzed by the Eurovisionworld portal. Meanwhile, Israel's chances of winning are put at 17 percent, while Nemo from Switzerland comes in third. The former's participation is a controversial topic, with activists calling for a boycott of the show due to the current situation in Gaza. Sweden, which won last year's contest, ranks twelfth with a one percent chance to take home the win. Important to note: These odds are not final and will likely change before the show's airing date.

Although the differences seem drastic at first glance, bookmakers have not always got it right in the past. In the eight competitions between 2015 and 2023, participants with the second or third highest odds of winning won first place three times.