The Rise & Fall of BRICS Electricity Emissions

As Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Chinese President Xi Jinping meet to discuss their countries’ future trade partnerships, energy and the environment are also top of mind, as the question arises on how best to balance economic growth with the global issue of the climate crisis.

Extracting materials, manufacturing goods and (not only sustaining but) growing the economy of huge nations is highly energy intensive and produces huge amounts of waste, including in the form of carbon emissions.

The following chart compares the percentage change in CO2 emissions created through electricity production in the BRICS bloc - Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa - year-on-year.

Here, Brazil stands out for its absolute drop in emissions (-34.2 percent) in 2022. According to Ember analysts, this fall is due to clean energy generation having increased beyond rising demand. Gas generation fell by 46 percent in the country, while hydropower dominated the electricity mix (63 percent, 428 TWh). At the same time, wind and solar power exceeded the global average of 12 percent, accounting for 15 percent of the country’s electricity.

China, on the other hand, saw a net increase of 1.6 percent (+76 mtCO2) in the emissions from electricity generation from the year before. Ember researchers say this is partly due to the fact that electricity demand growth in the country was met in part by coal power last year.

While it’s true that coal made up 61 percent of China's electricity mix in 2022, it is important to add here that the country led the way worldwide in terms of producing the most electricity from hydro power at 1,318 TWh (making up 15 percent of its energy mix), while solar and wind contributed 14 percent, nuclear (5 percent) and bioenergy (2 percent).

As Małgorzata Wiatros-Motyka, Senior electricity analyst at Ember, explains: “China is the world’s biggest coal power country but also the leader in absolute wind and solar generation. Choices being made about energy in the country have worldwide implications. Whether peaking fossil globally happens in 2023 is largely down to China.”

Evan Ellis, a Latin America research professor, also weighs in on the topic, highlighting some further nuances in an opinion piece on how electricity generation and transmission has been an important focus of Chinese investment in Brazil over the past 20 years, with 48 percent of all investments by value going into the sector.

Xi and Lula are also expected to discuss the topic of carbon credits as well as talk of a Brazilian-Chinese satellite, which will allow for efficient monitoring of biomes such as the Amazon Rainforest.