How Big Is China's Covid Wave Really?

A wave of celebrity deaths is the latest instance calling into question the official number of Covid-19 cases and deaths coming out of China. The Guardian reports that deceased stars from the worlds of cinema, opera and sports were among those whose deaths sparked lively conversations on Chinese social media about the correctness of official statistics reporting relatively few infected and very few deaths from the virus.

After the Chinese government started to dismantle its zero Covid strategy in early December, infections have risen, but government figures about the consequences have not been in line with reports of overwhelmed hospitals and cremation facilities. Most recently, on January 4, China reported around 9,300 new Covid-19 cases and one death, with highs of 5 and 7 daily deaths having occurred on January 3 and December 19, respectively. On December 21, these numbers had stood at 5,944 new cases and zero new deaths.

An independent forecast from health analytics company Airfinity, however, put the number of daily new cases in late December at one million and the number of daily new deaths at around 5,000. The analysts further predict that a first peak of the current Chinese Covid wave will be reached on January 13 at 3.7 million daily new cases in the regions currently being heavily affected by Covid-19, for example Beijing and Guangdong, while a second peak of the wave is forecast at around March 3 at 4.2 million daily new cases in provinces further away from current Chinese coronavirus epicenters.