Inflation Projections and the War in Ukraine

In addition to the humanitarian catastrophe, the war in Ukraine has also triggered an inflation crisis that is affecting people all over the world. As this infographic based on the latest OECD Economic Outlook shows, the impact of rising consumer prices is being especially felt in Europe and countries neighboring Ukraine. For Lithuania, OECD analysts project an inflation rate of 15.6 percent for 2022 - compared to the previous forecast from December 2021, this is an increase of 12.4 percentage points.

Rising inflation, largely caused by a sharp increase in energy and food prices, is causing hardship for low-income people and increasing food insecurity in the world's poorest economies. According to the OECD, pressures on supply chains and commodity prices are expected to gradually ease by 2023, and the impact of rising interest rates should also be felt by then. Nevertheless, core inflation is projected to be maintained in many major economies by the end of the year.